Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.5% in September from August

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Contact BTS 52-09 Dave Smallen 202-366-5568

Thursday, November 12, 2009 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.5 percent in September from its August level, declining after three consecutive monthly increases, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the Freight TSI has now declined in 10 of the past 14 months and in five of the nine months in 2009 despite the three consecutive monthly increases that began in June (Table 2). It had increased 2.8 percent in between May and August. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index.  The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

The September Freight TSI of 95.7 is a 2.3 percent increase from the recent low of 93.5 reached in May.  In May, the index was at its lowest level in more than a decade since June 1997. The Freight TSI is down 15.2 percent from its historic peak of 112.9 reached in May 2006.

The 4.6 percent decline in the first nine months of 2009 was the largest for the January-to-September period since a 5.9 percent decline for the first nine months of 2000 (Table 3).

The September Freight TSI of 95.7 is the lowest for September since September 1996 when it was 87.7. The 9.9 percent decline in the Freight TSI from September 2008 to September 2009 was the largest September-to-September decline in the 20 years for which the TSI is calculated (Table 4). 

The freight index is also down 13.0 percent in the five years from September 2004.  The index is down 8.0 percent in the 10 years from September 1999 (Table 5). 

The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000.  It includes historic data from 1990 to the present.  Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec. 9.

BTS has issued a report explaining the TSI. Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download in the BTS bookstore.

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers fell 0.8 percent in September from its August level (Table 6).  The Passenger TSI September 2009 level of 110.3 was 4.4 percent below the September 2008 level, the second largest September-to-September decrease in the last decade, exceeded only by the 22.9 percent decrease in September 2001 to which the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack contributed (Table 7). Despite recent declines, the index is up 5.5 percent in five years and 13.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).

The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel conducted in the for-hire passenger transportation sector.  The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Freight and Passenger Index

The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.6 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2009 level of 98.9 was 8.6 percent lower than the September 2008 level, leaving the index at its lowest September level since 2001 (Table 9). The combined index is down 8.7 percent in five years and down 2.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5). 

The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

3rd Quarter Changes

The Freight TSI rose 1.8 percent in the third quarter, the first quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 2007 (Table 10).  The Passenger TSI rose 1.2 percent in the third quarter, rising for the second consecutive quarter (Table 11).  The combined TSI rose 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the first quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 2007 (Table 12).

More on TSI

NOTE: TSI numbers for May (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The May Freight TSI is 93.5, revised from the 94.0 reported in last month’s release. The May Passenger TSI is 108.7, revised from 109.4. The May Combined TSI is 96.9, revised from 97.4. The TSI for June, July, August and September are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered preliminary.  Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI.  More information about the monthly revision policy, is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml

More information about the comprehensive revision conducted with the July release is provided under 2009 Comprehensive Revision at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since March 2009
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2000-2009
Percent change from December of previous year
December to September

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2009 (September to September)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE:  The percent changes to September 2009 are all preliminary.

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September Combined TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 10: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 11: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 12: Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2000-2009
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:

For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.