BTS | Table 2 - Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy

Table 2
Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy

NBER-defined chronologies of economy¹				Business cycle of Transportation Output Index
Recessions		Growth cycle		Chronology		Lead and lag of transportation vs. Recessions of economy		Lead and lag of transportation vs. Growth cycle of economy
P	T	P	T	P	T	P	T	P	T
–	Jul–80	–	Jul–80	–	Jul–80	–	0	–	0
Jul–81	Nov–82	Jul–81	Dec–82	Feb–81	Oct–82	–5	–1	–5	–2
–	–	Sep–84	Jan–87	Aug–84	Sep–85	–	–	–1	–16
Jul–90	Mar–91	Jan–89	Dec–91	Feb–88	Mar–91	–29	0	–11	–9
–	–	Jan–95	Jan–96	Dec–94	Jul–95	–	–	–1	–6
Mar–01	Nov–01	Jun–00	–	Nov–99	Sep–01	–16	–2	–7	–
					Mean	–17	–1	–5	–7
					Median	–16	–0.5	–5	–6

¹ Business cycle chronologies are taken from http://www.nber.org/; growth cycle chronologies are taken from Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim (2002).

Key: P = peak; T = trough.