BTS | Table 4: Air Series Predictive Accuracy

Table 4: Air Series Predictive Accuracy

Sample period: 1998-2003

Series	RMSE	U-statistic	U-bias	U-variance	U-covariance
El Paso International Airport Domestic Passenger Arrivals
ELAPDD¹	125.9	0.004	0.51	0.01	0.48
ELAPDD²	99.7	0.003	0.33	0.02	0.65
El Paso International Airport International Passenger Arrivals
ELAPDI¹	6.947	0.276	0.74	0.02	0.24
ELAPDI²	4.867	0.203	0.75	0.03	0.22
El Paso International Airport Domestic Passenger Departures
ELAPED¹	140.9	0.004	0.38	0.01	0.62
ELAPED²	118.1	0.004	0.26	0.11	0.63
El Paso International Airport International Passenger Departures
ELAPEI¹	5.796	0.255	0.69	0.00	0.31
ELAPEI²	4.657	0.202	0.68	0.03	0.29
El Paso International Airport Inbound Freight
ELAFDT¹	8.622	0.055	0.02	0.10	0.88
ELAFDT²	9.838	0.063	0.07	0.09	0.84
El Paso International Airport Outbound Freight
ELAFET¹	4.889	0.046	0.05	0.01	0.94
ELAFET²	5.399	0.052	0.03	0.02	0.95
El Paso International Airport Inbound U.S. Mail
ELAMD¹	1.231	0.507	0.23	0.04	0.74
ELAMD²	1.361	0.552	0.28	0.15	0.57
El Paso International Airport Outbound U.S. Mail
ELAME¹	0.934	0.957	0.25	0.06	0.69
ELAME²	1.035	0.978	0.24	0.08	0.68

¹ Previously published borderplex structural model forecast.

² Random walk forecast calculated as last available historical observation.