Table 4: Estimated Causal Models for the Metro and Bus Variables
In logs
Excel | CSV
| Constant |
0.0004 |
-0.0009 |
0.0009 |
0.0003 |
| (0.0022) |
(0.0027) |
(0.0016) |
(0.0002) |
| DAYS |
0.0096* |
0.0151* |
0.0073* |
0.0164* |
| (0.0017) |
(0.0030) |
(0.0022) |
(0.0021) |
| EASTER |
-0.0479* |
-0.0987* |
-0.0310* |
-0.1064* |
| (0.0101) |
(0.0158) |
(0.0127) |
(0.0141) |
| MAR89 |
-0.0311 |
-0.1064* |
|
|
| (0.0235) |
(0.0451) |
|
|
| MAR90 |
0.0609* - 0.1265*B - 0.006*B2 |
|
-0.6667* - 0.1482*B |
-0.6491* - 0.2287*B |
| (0.0322) (0.0364)
(0.0270) |
|
(0.0759) (0.0631) |
(0.0457) (0.0387) |
| APR90 |
|
0.0494 |
|
|
| |
(0.0520) |
|
|
| JAN91 |
-0.0998* |
|
|
|
| (0.0272) |
|
|
|
| APR91 |
0.0436* |
|
|
|
| (0.0245) |
|
|
|
| FEB92 |
0.0942* |
|
-1.6170* -
0.3406*B - 0.1301*B2 |
-2.0973* - 0.4516*B |
| (0.0216) |
|
(0.0323) (0.0417)
(0.0381) |
(0.0383) (0.0411) |
| JAN98 |
-0.1190* -
0.0951*B - 0.0721*B2 |
|
-0.1107* - 0.1010*B |
|
| (0.0269) (0.0303)
(0.0283) |
|
(0.0360) (0.0349) |
|
| ΔPSMT |
-1.2817* |
0.7601* |
|
|
| (0.1202) |
(0.1640) |
|
|
| ΔP10MT |
-0.1878 |
-2.4665* |
|
|
| (0.4350) |
(0.6658) |
|
|
| ΔPSBT |
|
|
-1.2776* |
0.2205* |
| |
|
(0.1600) |
(0.0679) |
| ΔP10BT |
|
|
0.7461 |
-0.5178* |
| |
|
(0.5128) |
(0.1838) |
| ΔPTC |
0.6922 |
2.6274* |
-0.6958 |
0.9075* |
| (0.5463) |
(0.8564) |
(0.6393) |
(0.2516) |
| φ1 |
-0.5577 |
|
-0.2586* |
|
| (0.3319) |
|
(0.0961) |
|
| φ2 |
|
|
-0.3086* |
|
| |
|
(0.0908) |
|
| θ1 |
-0.5775 |
|
|
0.4047* |
| (0.3386) |
|
|
(0.0767) |
| θ2 |
|
|
|
0.5842* |
| |
|
|
(0.0774) |
| Φ12 |
|
|
-0.5154* |
|
| |
|
(0.0731) |
|
| Θ12 |
0.3145* |
0.5629* |
|
0.7979* |
| (0.0830) |
(0.0651) |
|
(0.0871) |
| Θ24 |
|
|
|
-0.2589* |
| |
|
|
(0.0809) |
 |
0.035717 |
0.065537 |
0.040829 |
0.041271 |
| R2 |
0.89 |
0.6 |
0.98 |
0.99 |
| LBQ (12, 24, 36) |
5.4, 16.0, 27.2 |
9.1, 11.5, 22.3 |
14.6, 23.1, 25.0 |
7.8, 19.7, 36.2 |
| Jarque-Bera (p-value) |
2.43 (0.297) |
0.289 (0.865) |
2.11 (0.348) |
6.36 (0.042) |
| White's heterosk (p-value) |
22.82 (0.83) |
6.08 (0.81) |
4.35 (0.99) |
2.11 (0.999) |
Notes: Standard errors are in parenthesis. * significant at 5%; ∇ = (1 - B) and ∇12 = (1 - B12): regular and seasonal differences; B: lag operator; ΔPTi (i = SMT, 10BT, SBT, 10BT, TC): rates of growth of deflated prices for Metro and bus tickets; LBQ: Ljung-Box Q statistics;  = residual standard error.
|
