Table 5: Estimated Causal Models for TC and JTC
In logs
Excel | CSV
| Constant |
0.0544* |
-0.0368* |
| (0.0073) |
(0.0076) |
| DAYS |
0.0018 |
0.0026* |
| (0.0024) |
(0.0010) |
| EASTER |
-0.0535* |
-0.0710* |
| (0.0106) |
(0.0041) |
| FEB93 |
|
0.0579* |
| |
(0.0136) |
| APR93 |
|
-0.0870* |
| |
(0.0137) |
| MAR94 |
0.0368* |
|
| (0.0165) |
|
| JUL95 |
|
0.0492* |
| |
(0.0085) |
| ΔPTCi |
0.1576 |
-0.0134 |
| (0.3032) |
(0.1387) |
| MRLi |
0.2517*B4 - 0.4175*B5 |
0.1800*B4 - 0.2087*B5 |
| (0.1344) (0.1665) |
(0.0861) (0.0977) |
| (1 + 0.9897*B) |
|
| (0.0672) |
|
| θ1 |
0.4557* |
|
| (0.1316) |
|
| θ2 |
-0.5399* |
0.4671* |
| (0.0997) |
(0.1641) |
| θ3 |
|
-0.5261* |
| |
(0.1628) |
| Θ12 |
-0.1285 |
-0.4048* |
| (0.0939) |
(0.0949) |
| φ1 |
0.3240* |
0.9753* |
| (0.1042) |
(0.1044) |
| φ2 |
|
-0.6448* |
| |
(0.1997) |
| φ3 |
0.2694* |
0.3357* |
| (0.0964) |
(0.1314) |
| φ4 |
|
-0.3400* |
| |
(0.0942) |
 |
0.0256 |
0.03035 |
| R2 |
0.7 |
0.86 |
| LBQ (12, 24, 36) |
11.2, 22.8, 45.6 |
10.6, 14.6, 21.9 |
| Jarque-Bera (p-value) |
2.75 (0.252) |
2.69 (0.260) |
| White's heterosk (p-value) |
6.68 (0.946) |
5.86 (0.97) |
Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. * represents significant at 5%; ∇ = (1 - B) and ∇12 = (1 - B12): regular and seasonal differences; B: lag operator; ΔPTCi (i = TC, JTC): rates of growth of deflated price for TC tickets; MRL: Metro route length; LBQ: Ljung-Box Q statistics;  = residual standard error.
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