Table 4 - Forecasts of Numbers of Passengers and Aircraft Movements
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A. PASSENGERS
(millions)
| GVA (1953-2002) |
Forecast |
7.86 |
8.05 |
8.29 |
8.19 |
| Observed |
8.09 |
8.59 |
|
|
| RMSE |
0.43 |
0.69 |
1.02 |
1.33 |
| Error |
−2.84% |
−6.29% |
|
|
| ZRH (1953-2003) |
Forecast |
in sample |
16.41 |
16.55 |
16.59 |
| Observed |
17.02 |
17.25 |
|
|
| RMSE |
in sample |
1.62 |
2.41 |
3.27 |
| Error |
in sample |
−4.87% |
|
|
| BSL (1953-2002) |
Forecast |
2.85 |
2.84 |
3.07 |
3.49 |
| Observed |
2.48 |
2.59 |
|
|
| RMSE |
0.23 |
0.44 |
0.70 |
0.10 |
| Error |
14.92% |
9.65% |
|
|
B. AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
(hundreds of thousands)
| GVA (1953-2002) |
Forecast |
1.64 |
1.66 |
1.67 |
1.69 |
| Observed |
1.63 |
1.67 |
|
|
| RMSE |
0.07 |
0.10 |
0.14 |
0.17 |
| Error |
0.61% |
−0.60% |
|
|
| ZRH (1953-2003) |
Forecast |
in sample |
2.78 |
2.95 |
3.16 |
| Observed |
2.69 |
2.67 |
|
|
| RMSE |
in sample |
0.20 |
0.29 |
0.37 |
| Error |
in sample |
4.12% |
|
|
| BSL (1953-2002) |
Forecast |
1.01 |
0.97 |
0.99 |
1.04 |
| Observed |
1.00 |
0.78 |
|
|
| RMSE |
0.09 |
0.15 |
0.22 |
0.30 |
| Error |
1.00% |
24.36% |
|
|
Key: RMSE = root mean squared error.
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