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Journal of Transportation and StatisticsVolume 7 Number 1

Journal of Transportation and Statistics - Volume 7, Number 1

Journal of Transportation and Statistics
Volume 7 Number 1

2004
ISSN 1094-8848

NOTES: The views presented in the articles in this journal are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. All material contained in this journal is in the public domain and may be used and reprinted without special permission; citation as to sources is required.

The Journal of Transportation and Statistics has been discontinued by BTS because of budget constraints. Papers are therefore no longer being accepted or considered for publication. BTS hopes to bring the Journal back as a virtual publication in the future, and will post any news about the status of JTS on this page.

Table of Contents File Formats
Entire Report
Editorial Board
Contributors
Front Matter
Letter from the Editor-in-Chief
Introduction to the Special Issue on Forecasting
Paper 1 - Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy by Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.
Table 1 - Borderplex Model Variables
Table 2 - Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results
Table 3 - Borderplex Transportation Historical and Forecast Data
Table 4 - Air Series Predictive Accuracy
Table 5 - Bridge Series Predictive Accuracy
Figure 1 - Borderplex Model Design
Figure 2 - Borderplex Air Activity
Figure 3 - Borderplex Bridge Activity: 1978-2003
Paper 2 - Estimating Commodity Inflows to a Substate Region Using Input-Output Data: Commodity Flow Survey Accuracy Tests by Louie Nan Liu and Pierre Vilain
Table 1 - Regression Results for the Effect of Distance and Commodity Tonnage on Forecast Accuracy
Table 2 - Regression Results for the Effect of Distance and the Relative Importance of a Commodity on Forecast Accuracy
Table A1 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Massachusetts
Table A2 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to New York
Table A3 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Pennsylvania
Table A4 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Ohio
Table A5 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Illinois
Table A6 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to California
Table A7 - Estimates of Annual Domestic Commodity Inflows to Washington
Paper 3 -Monthly Forecasts of Integrated Public Transport Systems: The Case of the Madrid Metropolitan Area by Antonio García-Ferrer, Aránzazu de Juan, Pilar Poncela, and Marcos Bujosa
Table 1 - Definitions of the Main Variables
Table 2 - Descriptive Statistics of the Logs of the Main Variables
Table 3 - Definitions of Intervention Variables
Table 4 - Estimated Causal Models for the Metro and Bus Variables
Table 5 - Estimated Causal Models for TC and JTC
Table 6 - NVR Estimates of the Main Variables
Table 7 - Mean Absolute Value (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for Alternative Models
Table 8 - Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models
Table 9 - Comparison of Forecast Accuracy: Results of the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and Modified Diebold-Mariano (DM*) Tests for the Square Loss Function and Several Forecast Horizons
Table 10 - Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for the DHR, Causal, and Average Forecasts
Table 11 - RMSE of the Different 1-Step-Ahead Forecasts of JTC
Figure 1 - Logs Showing the Main Variables: January 1991-December 2002
Paper 4 - Predicting and Monitoring Casualty Numbers in Great Britain by Robert Raeside
Table 1 - Coefficients and Fit of Models for Forecasting the Natural Logarithm of the Numbers of Fatal and Serious Casualties and of the Rate of Slight Casualties
Table 2 - Coefficients and Fit of Models for Forecasting the Natural Logarithm of the Number of Child and Pedestrian KSI Casualties
Table 3 - Probabilities of Attaining Road Accident Improvement Targets by 2010
Figure 1 - Casualty Trends in Great Britain: 1991-2001
Figure 2 - Casualty Trends by Type
Figure 3 - Forecasts of Fatalities, Serious Casualties, and Slight Casualties
Figure 4 - Forecasts of Child and Pedestrian KSIs
Paper 5 - Estimating the Impact of Recent Interventions on Transportation Indicators by Keith Ord and Peg Young
Table 1 - Statistical Definitions of Assignable Causes in Time Series
Table 2 - Some of the Principal Models in the Structural Framework
Table 3 - Summary of Data Structure and Changes Since Earlier Analyses
Table 4 - Original Models for Each Series
Table 5 - Results of Intervention Analyses for the Five Series
Table 6 - Relative Values (RV) of MAPE Using Different Forecast Origins
Figure 1 - Example of Additive Outlier (AO)
Figure 2 - Example of Temporary Change (TC)
Figure 3 - Example of Level Shift (LS)
Figure 4 - Percentage of Scheduled Flights for Major U.S. Air Carriers Not Arriving on Time: September 1987-February 2002
Figure 5 - Smoothed Components of the Late Arrivals Series
Figure 6 - Filtered Components of the Late Arrivals Series: September 1987-August 2001
Figure 7 - Shewhart Chart of Standardized Residuals of Late Arrivals Series: September 1987-February 2002
Figure 8 - Trend for Late Arrival Series: September 1987-February 2002
Figure 9 - Percentage of Scheduled Flights Canceled by Major U.S. Carriers: September 1987-February 2002
Figure 10 - Number of Enplanements on Domestic Aircraft: September 1987-February 2002
Figure 11 - Revenue-Earning Miles Flown by Passengers on Major U.S. Carriers: January 1991-February 2002
Figure 12 - Revenue-Earning Passenger-Miles Carried by AMTRAK and the Alaska Railroad: January 1979-November 2002
Figure 13 - Air Revenue Passsenger-Miles Forecast (as of December 2001) with No Interventions for September 2001: January 1991-August 2003
Figure 14 - Air Revenue Passenger-Miles Forecasts (as of December 2001) with Three-Interventions for September 2001: January 1991-August 2003
Paper 6 - Airline Networks: An Econometric Framework to Analyze Domestic U.S. Air Travel by Dipasis Bhadra and Pamela Texter
Table 1 - System of Scheduled Aviation Activities in the United States: Number of Passengers and Aircraft Departures (in natural logs)
Figure 1 - U.S. Airline Industry Capacity Adjustments Since 2000
Figure 2 - Airline Market Share by Type of Carrier
Figure 3 - Number of Scheduled Flights by Type of Aircraft: April 2000 and April 2004
Figure 4 - Annual Passenger Enplanements at Airports, by Type of Network Variant
Figure 5 - Illustration of T100 Data
Figure 6 - Impact of a One Percentage Point Change in Southwest Airlines' Market Share on Different Variants of the Network
Figure 7 - Effect of 9/11 on Different Variants of the Network
Appendix A - Activities at 35 Operational Evolution Plan (OEP) Airports in the United States: 2002
Guidelines for Manuscript Submission
Back Cover
Updated: Saturday, May 20, 2017