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Table 2 Overview of the Significant Explanatory and Correction Variables for Each Dependent Variable

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Table 2 Overview of the Significant Explanatory and Correction Variables for Each Dependent Variable

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  LNACCKSI LNACCLI LNPERKSI LNPERLI
State space Regression State space Regression State space Regression State space Regression
Laws                
LAW0675 −0.132 (−3.31) −0.135 (−3.82) −0.062 (−2.13) −0.070 (−2.40) −0.180 (−4.07) −0.159 (−4.24) −0.109 (−3.35) −0.120 (−3.75)
LAW0192   −0.062 (−1.87) −0.063 (−2.17) −0.071 (−2.50) −0.087 (−2.09) −0.076 (−2.11)   −0.064 (−2.03)
LAW1294 −0.109 (−2.72) −0.105 (−3.12)     −0.104 (−2.50) −0.093 (−2.57)    
Weather conditions                
QUAPREC     0.001 (4.12) 0.001 (4.71)     0.001 (3.85) 0.001 (4.39)
PDAYPREC   0.001 (3.34) 0.001 (2.60) 0.001 (2.84) 0.001 (4.04) 0.001 (4.02) 0.001 (2.69) 0.001 (2.88)
HRSSUN 0.000 (3.92) 0.001 (5.35) 0.001 (4.99) 0.001 (5.38) 0.001 (4.48) 0.001 (4.80) 0.000 (3.82) 0.000 (4.17)
PDAYFROST −0.002 (−5.93) −0.001 (−5.77) −0.001 (−5.73) −0.001 (−5.63) −0.001 (−4.82) −0.001 (−4.81) −0.001 (−4.44) −0.001 (−4.36)
PDAYTHUN     0.001 (2.12) 0.001 (2.06)     0.001 (2.03) 0.001 (1.93)
Economic variables                
LNUNEMP         0.117 (1.69)      
LNCAR         −0.078 (−2.11)      
Correction variables                
Jan-79 −0.553 (−10.02) −0.574 (−12.05) −0.456 (−10.02) −0.441 (−10.40) −0.558 (−9.72) −0.550 (−10.75) −0.464 (−9.51) −0.458 (−9.97)
Jan-84             −0.450 (−9.28) −0.449 (−9.87)
Jan-85 −0.277 (−5.04) −0.282 (−5.85) −0.2711 (−6.00) −0.2852 (−6.80) −0.297(−5.22) −0.289 (−5.62) −0.276 (−5.67) −0.294 (−6.46)
Feb-97 −0.118 (−2.15) −0.128 (−2.66) −0.2033 (−4.50) −0.2181 (−5.08) −0.130 (−2.28) −0.124 (−2.31) −0.214 (−4.41) −0.238 (−5.09)
Forecasting measure                
MSE(12) 0.005 0.0046 0.0034 0.0052 0.007 0.0063 0.0036 0.0052

Note: Calculated ccording to the state space method and the regression model with ARMA errors, together with the coefficients and t−values (in parentheses) and the MSE values of the predictions for 2000.