United States Department of Transportation

Table 10: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro and Bus Tickets and Travel Cards for the DHR, Causal, and Average Forecasts

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Forecasting Period: 2000-2002

	SMT	10MT	SBT	10BT	TC	JTC
h = 1
Causal	0.037	0.049	0.059	0.034	0.043	0.039
DHR	0.043	0.054	0.066	0.051	0.041	0.043
Average	0.037	0.042	0.059	0.035	0.037	0.033
h = 6
Causal	0.051	0.085	0.119	0.038	0.059	0.030
DHR	0.066	0.067	0.113	0.050	0.053	0.046
Average	0.055	0.069	0.111	0.038	0.052	0.031
h = 12
Causal	0.088	0.123	0.142	0.034	0.051	0.030
DHR	0.100	0.089	0.128	0.050	0.051	0.036
Average	0.091	0.101	0.126	0.036	0.045	0.026
h = 24
Causal	0.174	0.180	0.164	0.039	0.144	0.095
DHR	0.265	0.134	0.287	0.085	0.096	0.059
Average	0.213	0.145	0.204	0.051	0.108	0.028