Transit ridership has increased dramatically over the past few years. Gas prices paid by drivers also increased dramatically until recently. The USDOT Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (formerly known as RITA) and the California DOT cosponsored a study to examine the relationship between increases in gas prices and transit ridership in 10 U.S. urbanized areas (mostly densely populated urban cores).

The study, Net Effects of Gasoline Price Changes on Transit Ridership in U.S. Urban Areas, released in December 2014, hypothesized what might happen with transit ridership if gasoline prices rose 10 percent between 2002 levels and 2011 in the 10 urbanized areas. It also examined transit ridership changes when gasoline prices reached a $3 threshold and a $4 per gallon threshold [ISEKI; ALI 2014].

The study examined bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail modes, as well as total transit system ridership. Effects varied by transit mode and other conditions. While only

the bus mode (and aggregate ridership) had strongly positive short-term effects when there was a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices, all modes showed ridership increases when the gas price increase was long-term during the 10-year study period. When gas prices were over $3 per gallon, the study noted a “positive threshold boost effect” for commuter and heavy rails, resulting in a “substantially higher rate of ridership increase.” The rate of increase in bus ridership was 1.67 percent; the rate of increase for commuter rail was 2.05 percent, and the rate of increase for aggregate ridership rose 1.80 percent for the same level of gasoline price changes. When gasoline prices rose over $4 a gallon, the rate of increase in ridership for heavy rail rose to 9.34 percent.

The study suggested that transit agencies could prepare for such “potential” increases in peak-period ridership from high gasoline prices through measures such as pricing strategies, general financing, capacity management, and operations planning of transit services.