Table 4: HP-filtered TSI Turning Points Against the CCI Growth Cycles
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Table 4: HP-filtered TSI Turning Points Against the CCI Growth Cycles
Growth Cycle Turning Points in the Coincident Index and TSI freight
| Economy | TSI freight - HP filtered | Lead / Lag of TSI in months | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak | Mar-79 | ||
| Trough | Jul-80 | Jul-80 | 0 |
| Peak | Jul-81 | Jan-81 | +6 |
| Trough | Dec-82 | Nov-82 | +1 |
| Peak | Sep-84 | Apr-84 | +6 |
| Trough | Jan-87 | Oct-85 | +13 |
| Peak | Jan-89 | Jun-88 | +7 |
| Trough | Jul-89 | -- | |
| Peak | Mar-90 | -- | |
| Trough | Dec-91 | Mar-91 | +9 |
| Peak | Jul-92 | -- | |
| Trough | Jul-93 | -- | |
| Peak | Jan-95 | Dec-94 | +1 |
| Trough | Jan-96 | Jan-96 | 0 |
| Peak | Jun-00 | Nov-99 | +2 |
| Trough | Feb-02 | Sep-01 | +5 |
| Peak | Trough | |
|---|---|---|
| Average lead in months | +4.4 | +4.7 |
| Range in months | 1 to 7 | 0 to 13 |
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, http://www.bts.gov.