Table 1-1
Table 1-1
| Forecasts Past and Future | 1975 Actual |
1990 Coleman forecast |
1990 Actual |
2000 Estimated |
2025 Forecast13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Context | |||||
| Population (millions)1 | 215 | 247 | 249 | 275 | 338 |
| GNP (constant 1975 $, billions)2 | $1,598 | $2,830 | $2,409 | $3,049 | $5,486 |
| GNP Per Capita (1975 $)2 | $7,417 | $11,457 | $9,675 | $11,087 | $16,240 |
| GDP (constant 2000 $, billions)3 | NA | NA | NA | $9,942 | $18,258 |
| Passenger Transportation | |||||
| Passenger-Miles (billions)4 | 2,560 | 3,850 | 3,946 | 5,036 | 8,438 |
| Passenger-Miles Per Capita4 | 11,881 | 15,600 | 15,847 | 18,313 | 24,979 |
| Licensed Drivers (millions)5 | 130 | 161 | 167 | 190 | 243 |
| Vehicles (millions)6 | 138 | 170 | 193 | 219 | 262 |
| Freight Transportation7 | |||||
| Total Ton-Miles (millions) | 2,285,000 | 4,394,706 | 3,196,000 | 3,959,432 | 5,098,888 |
| Rail* | 754,252 | 1,845,777 | 1,033,969 | 1,416,446 | 1,484,802 |
| Water (domestic ton-miles) | 565,984 | 1,010,782 | 833,544 | 763,540 | NA |
| Water (domestic and foreign tons) | 1,695 | NA | 2,164 | 2,453 | 3,429 |
| Truck (intercity | 454,000 | 703,153 | 735,000 | 1,130,132 | 2,121,837 |
| Air | 3,470 | 8,789 | 9,064 | 15,904 | 33,925 |
| Pipeline | 507,000 | 834,994 | 584,000 | 633,410 | 797,950 |
| Safety8 | |||||
| Transportation fatalities | 49,214 | 45,500 | 47,248 | 42,600 | 40,300 |
| Air Pollution9 | |||||
| CO (millions of tons) | 85.27 | 27.00 | 61.18 | 50.48 | 24.24 |
| NOx ( millions of tons) | 9.45 | 8.82 | 8.51 | 8.66 | 7.98 |
| Greenhouse gas emissions10 | 350.00 | NA | 420.00 | 500.00 | 600.00 |
| Energy11 | |||||
| Btu12 (trillions) | 16,998 | 16,700 | 24,070 | 25,200 | 36,600 |
* The FRA forecasts a two percent average annual growth rate for the 2000-2025 period. This translates into 2.4 trillion ton-miles in 2025.
1 Population projections
are taken from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual
Projections of the Total Resident Population as of July 1: Middle Series
Projections for 2000 and 2025.
2 Forecasts for GNP are
based on 1975 through 1999 data, using log linear (Holt) exponential
smoothing model, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
3 Forecasts for GDP are
based on 1929 through 1999 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing,
parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
4 Forecasts are based on
1990 through 1997 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
5 Forecasts are based on
1949 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
6 Forecasts for vehicles
are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential
smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
7 Forecasts for total ton-miles
are an aggregate of the individual forecasts by mode. Forecasts for
rail ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend
exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
Forecasts for water ton-miles are based on two forecast models: log
damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1990 through 1997 data,
and log simple exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data
in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights.
Forecasts for truck ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear
trend based on 1990 through 1997 data, and double (Brown) exponential
smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the
two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for air ton-miles
are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through
1998 data, and damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1960 through
1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with
equal weights. Forecasts for pipeline ton-miles are based on 1990 through
1997 data using log linear trend. All forecast model parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software.
8 Forecasts are based on
1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
9 Forecasts for CO are based
on 1985 through 1997 data, using log linear trend parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for NOx are based on 1985 through
1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions are
based on expert opinion.
10 Millions of metric tons
of carbon equivalent, excluding bunker fuels.
11 Forecasts based on 1990
through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
12 Btu: British thermal
unit.
13 The 2025 forecasts are
purely statistical. For sources of data used in these forecasts see
page 1-32.