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Figure 5-4 Detrended Freight TSI, Detrended and Smoothed Freight TSI and Growth Cycles, January 1979–December 2013

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Graphic Version | Excel

  detrended Freight TSI Freight TSI turning points Detrended and smoothed Freight TSI Growth cycle
Jan-79 2.018473617     0
Feb-79 2.614881965     0
Mar-79 7.497271622     1
Apr-79 -5.826400317     1
May-79 3.555753819     1
Jun-79 4.444675652     1
Jul-79 3.885273879   2.372732864 1
Aug-79 1.161416039   2.178632189 1
Sep-79 2.527933692   1.817769911 1
Oct-79 2.570647647   1.797011899 1
Nov-79 1.085355299   1.761415527 1
Dec-79 3.543830244   1.224354858 1
Jan-80 0.805836024   0.584854314 1
Feb-80 -0.830896633   0.10888531 1
Mar-80 2.282355538   -0.232669485 1
Apr-80 0.109676503   -0.598136747 1
May-80 -2.015282932   -0.743299327 1
Jun-80 -2.873743648   -0.776184541 1
Jul-80 -4.144319889   -0.766271152 1
Aug-80 -2.232246282   -0.617322406 0
Sep-80 -2.275719078   -0.484636115 0
Oct-80 0.396913857   -0.337212713 0
Nov-80 1.569014874   -0.063548144 0
Dec-80 2.270925543   0.258406439 0
Jan-81 2.31666205   0.636117134 0
Feb-81 1.233047265   1.025505984 0
Mar-81 3.402882606 3.402882606 1.286114138 0
Apr-81 1.307958075   1.461764918 0
May-81 2.13503216   1.461894734 0
Jun-81 0.702851239   1.215259796 0
Jul-81 1.34414192   0.901394442 1
Aug-81 1.624624302   0.59265509 1
Sep-81 0.122006038   0.173098145 1
Oct-81 0.420979735   -0.259100475 1
Nov-81 -0.245763128   -0.574141458 1
Dec-81 0.83353497   -0.867848089 1
Jan-82 0.111645937   0.182580006 1
Feb-82 -2.748389192   0.551147143 1
Mar-82 -2.685047607   0.953473483 1
Apr-82 -2.976878605   -2.326051979 1
May-82 0.141114742   -2.734315828 1
Jun-82 -3.069961012   -3.070010021 1
Jul-82 -2.436611839   -3.212562563 1
Aug-82 -3.440233222   -3.312414698 1
Sep-82 -4.468968593   -3.43172792 1
Oct-82 -3.929929532   -3.463799718 1
Nov-82 -5.693186234 -5.693186234 -3.475520802 1
Dec-82 -4.442772502   -3.465499809 1
Jan-83 0.923669423   -3.189729858 1
Feb-83 -4.33281694   -2.864838644 1
Mar-83 -3.964137187   -2.640965993 0
Apr-83 -2.467512172   -2.313391867 0
May-83 0.931787199   0.912538443 0
Jun-83 -2.038784721   0.471306472 0
Jul-83 3.150690699   0.079537331 0
Aug-83 0.230146626   -0.726308772 0
Sep-83 0.306111556   -0.269938549 0
Oct-83 0.768992438   0.212220642 0
Nov-83 -0.771626018   0.589901935 0
Dec-83 1.22523458   0.930586504 0
Jan-84 1.810782881   1.095666725 0
Feb-84 0.410216188   1.179359688 0
Mar-84 2.245715037   1.418997339 0
Apr-84 2.894456165 2.894456165 1.535234038 0
May-84 1.770595515   1.539419336 0
Jun-84 2.435262224   1.591138569 0
Jul-84 2.638569037   1.484462816 0
Aug-84 1.290606147   1.213448425 0
Sep-84 1.924439312   0.941137996 0
Oct-84 0.328122343   0.589437894 0
Nov-84 -0.230308773   0.204829099 1
Dec-84 1.925178914   -0.149754529 1
Jan-85 0.449379513   -0.593797698 1
Feb-85 -2.833966799   0.038450392 1
Mar-85 0.045552266   0.455273767 1
Apr-85 -2.255078996   0.877027692 1
May-85 -2.310480388   -2.203583565 1
Jun-85 0.993668958   -2.524420398 1
Jul-85 -3.589535828   -2.673080134 1
Aug-85 -3.152953658   -2.554123005 1
Sep-85 -3.635761871   -2.42162616 1
Oct-85 -4.23377069 -4.23377069 -2.300851426 1
Nov-85 -3.505756674   -2.143538208 1
Dec-85 -2.499457177   -2.017654605 1
Jan-86 -0.592577086   0.800565533 1
Feb-86 -0.835798149   0.435867225 1
Mar-86 0.136203379   0.104430907 1
Apr-86 -0.538241022   -0.79648951 1
May-86 -0.251801131   -0.460932403 1
Jun-86 0.031141742   -0.184349913 1
Jul-86 0.658074681   -0.021078101 1
Aug-86 1.352195222   0.085298683 1
Sep-86 -0.186439128   0.190612947 1
Oct-86 -0.292499898   0.278279744 1
Nov-86 0.606343107   0.391087363 1
Dec-86 0.026422793   0.529071514 1
Jan-87 0.800066448   0.60484762 1
Feb-87 0.324601119   0.658651206 0
Mar-87 1.503346442   0.773378861 0
Apr-87 0.198619048   1.005337742 0
May-87 1.718721647   1.275202845 0
Jun-87 0.309955109   1.538056521 0
Jul-87 1.135604391   1.848635984 0
Aug-87 2.165951576   2.108372534 0
Sep-87 1.753268234   2.279847022 0
Oct-87 3.334805879   2.505120775 0
Nov-87 3.455799787   2.758692342 0
Dec-87 3.485454356   3.025162073 0
Jan-88 4.794941982 4.794941982 3.286896443 0
Feb-88 2.563402787   3.386525576 0
Mar-88 3.379932489   3.412732496 0
Apr-88 3.728603073   3.462460533 0
May-88 4.274455223   3.430871415 0
Jun-88 4.149495096   3.403053143 0
Jul-88 3.577689269   3.344853611 0
Aug-88 2.114965895   3.199839205 0
Sep-88 2.433219995   2.993503667 0
Oct-88 3.848327007   2.837269445 0
Nov-88 2.184139839   2.670531265 0
Dec-88 4.089475761   2.338949248 0
Jan-89 2.79413182   1.949325452 1
Feb-89 1.083867191   1.556523609 1
Mar-89 -0.092584821   1.224181069 1
Apr-89 3.451499051   0.854004098 1
May-89 0.549842931   0.472979298 1
Jun-89 -0.083861018   0.146835358 1
Jul-89 0.539925723   -0.192495076 1
Aug-89 -2.194663336   -0.435122386 1
Sep-89 0.23337175   -0.467113505 1
Oct-89 0.369328532   -0.549531336 1
Nov-89 0.742799832   -0.688809456 1
Dec-89 0.188960882   -0.689043023 1
Jan-90 0.44928372   -0.598195812 1
Feb-90 -0.495772717   -0.436391887 1
Mar-90 0.719268232   -0.283749774 1
Apr-90 0.661618057   -0.197175621 1
May-90 -0.00295097   -0.152531284 1
Jun-90 0.463327296   -0.231135128 1
Jul-90 0.093219025   -0.363054101 1
Aug-90 0.055486101   -0.48318635 1
Sep-90 0.17988954   -0.767093321 1
Oct-90 -0.704810153   0.144456989 1
Nov-90 0.335854138   0.498452226 1
Dec-90 -2.104477052   0.816993304 1
Jan-91 -2.321901158   -2.028563955 1
Feb-91 -2.506329234   -2.129089417 1
Mar-91 -4.083942557   -2.189267813 1
Apr-91 -3.591899195   -2.23761088 1
May-91 -4.245319397 -4.245319397 -2.255318419 1
Jun-91 -2.939290155   -2.243402842 1
Jul-91 0.581859145   -2.180689012 1
Aug-91 -0.682046829   -2.05006435 1
Sep-91 -0.526859017   0.814646085 1
Oct-91 0.158295208   0.51665746 1
Nov-91 0.307350017   0.189596583 1
Dec-91 0.847007337   -0.931489186 1
Jan-92 0.074238955   -0.780099981 0
Feb-92 -0.618999551   -0.704185058 0
Mar-92 -0.321233863   -0.761451615 0
Apr-92 -0.202880891   -0.81872533 0
May-92 0.215123334   -0.826699829 0
Jun-92 0.205155337   -0.787394492 0
Jul-92 0.317346954   -0.612071041 0
Aug-92 -0.759294774   -0.470775576 0
Sep-92 0.824008444   -0.524840193 0
Oct-92 0.235714943   -0.642050965 0
Nov-92 0.421318272   -0.743355769 0
Dec-92 -0.789710988   -0.797821539 0
Jan-93 2.076227514   -0.936716657 0
Feb-93 -0.378374847   0.185760451 0
Mar-93 0.859409381   0.305330242 0
Apr-93 0.477763893   0.294834038 0
May-93 -0.941308968   0.236084425 0
Jun-93 0.355901509   0.204340333 0
Jul-93 -2.865389702   0.320182579 0
Aug-93 -3.553609177   0.423055829 0
Sep-93 0.899369032   0.302350854 0
Oct-93 -0.908445455   0.417278586 0
Nov-93 -0.33859705   0.576621225 0
Dec-93 0.110574007   0.381064518 0
Jan-94 -0.383123379   0.111821277 0
Feb-94 -0.387981938   -0.803633192 0
Mar-94 1.047117093   -0.48835666 0
Apr-94 -7.142555915   -0.206257299 0
May-94 0.899259711   0.080403792 0
Jun-94 1.496890783   0.792367426 0
Jul-94 0.74365579   1.726665336 0
Aug-94 0.233859356   2.465530253 0
Sep-94 1.87979922   2.914345584 0
Oct-94 2.082770955   3.394971907 0
Nov-94 3.550052728   3.782951145 0
Dec-94 12.08790342 12.08790342 3.770335451 1
Jan-95 8.841549035   3.750100282 1
Feb-95 8.120103648   3.795561179 1
Mar-95 3.310599457   3.851290626 1
Apr-95 2.128993471   3.688200961 1
May-95 0.939212041   3.270835523 1
Jun-95 1.154161804   2.460536832 1
Jul-95 0.6007407   1.356492123 1
Aug-95 1.467835981   0.326865843 1
Sep-95 1.983329337   -0.397440121 1
Oct-95 0.934911135   -0.854526907 1
Nov-95 -2.449035703   0.221033643 1
Dec-95 0.360176718   0.56159154 1
Jan-96 -4.207443853   0.906945505 1
Feb-96 -3.541934186   -2.258409318 1
Mar-96 -2.410705834   -2.703487432 1
Apr-96 -3.119784114   -2.988580055 1
May-96 -2.608172022   -3.024729028 1
Jun-96 -3.471843665   -3.085740185 1
Jul-96 -3.061748997   -3.064641347 1
Aug-96 -3.304805822   -2.862931766 1
Sep-96 -3.925903595 -3.925903595 -2.771123979 1
Oct-96 -2.867901166   -2.694954014 1
Nov-96 -2.383621033   -2.533090571 1
Dec-96 -2.889859134   -2.42671906 1
Jan-97 -2.17138934   -2.244668103 1
Feb-97 -0.736958756   0.975785518 0
Mar-97 -3.012294384   0.605773335 0
Apr-97 -0.6901164   0.16156529 0
May-97 0.153117088   -0.827455248 0
Jun-97 -2.373982339   -0.478684654 0
Jul-97 0.209612633   -0.040820621 0
Aug-97 -0.122985404   0.32232417 0
Sep-97 1.772568378   0.68922908 0
Oct-97 2.094619945   1.079120489 0
Nov-97 0.67249885   1.436385059 0
Dec-97 2.42451525   1.872691126 0
Jan-98 3.022973074   2.280818727 0
Feb-98 2.784153799   2.557947223 0
Mar-98 2.272310912   2.710776522 0
Apr-98 3.382672115   2.78277451 0
May-98 3.348444073   2.895925641 0
Jun-98 3.595802122   2.946646932 0
Jul-98 4.034890597   2.89112025 0
Aug-98 2.702820532   2.898333512 0
Sep-98 2.614665599   3.007414527 0
Oct-98 2.980474443   3.067964266 0
Nov-98 2.502271494   3.033472519 0
Dec-98 1.812053588   2.987025666 0
Jan-99 2.302794385   2.913848664 0
Feb-99 3.677450767   2.913430477 0
Mar-99 3.996958294   3.050691419 0
Apr-99 3.111218471   3.208941494 0
May-99 2.792095791   3.379212455 0
Jun-99 3.037425937   3.633673008 0
Jul-99 2.837018739   3.883543899 0
Aug-99 3.890655899   4.010345563 0
Sep-99 4.721092847   3.83893747 0
Oct-99 4.672048989   3.366350288 0
Nov-99 4.89720001   2.924454139 0
Dec-99 5.524178335 5.524178335 2.57758797 0
Jan-00 4.587571037   2.159980315 0
Feb-00 4.43591404   1.766169173 0
Mar-00 -0.875299217   1.330505875 0
Apr-00 -3.358616369   0.74815873 1
May-00 0.343576948   0.173825394 1
Jun-00 0.151689382   -0.461720072 1
Jul-00 -2.996449661   0.088205217 1
Aug-00 0.272656891   0.66239498 1
Sep-00 -2.116827301   -2.047377558 1
Oct-00 -2.46636234   -2.160850753 1
Nov-00 0.748388725   -2.23611841 1
Dec-00 -3.083324116   -2.393172695 1
Jan-01 0.840569986   -2.563151737 1
Feb-01 -2.916499254   -2.706213169 1
Mar-01 -2.762467795   -2.921574224 1
Apr-01 -4.194804478   -3.113135408 1
May-01 -2.313812592   -3.308978506 1
Jun-01 -3.950756582   -3.556698144 1
Jul-01 -4.276879466   -3.780774971 1
Aug-01 0.880387679   -3.927115036 1
Sep-01 -5.132448052   -4.063214378 1
Oct-01 -4.048210003   -4.141449336 1
Nov-01 -4.866775424   -4.126283626 1
Dec-01 -5.910208721 -5.910208721 -4.088934279 1
Jan-02 -4.391529233   -3.909163451 1
Feb-02 -3.87770157   -3.733195433 1
Mar-02 -5.067649679   -3.554718319 1
Apr-02 -3.767261595   -3.251593966 1
May-02 -2.377378431   -2.902276315 1
Jun-02 -2.990806413   -2.475480863 1
Jul-02 -0.922329753   -2.114479565 1
Aug-02 0.011704967   0.931021453 1
Sep-02 0.717680032   0.758085982 1
Oct-02 -0.187993555   0.557759721 1
Nov-02 -0.343368239   0.494487963 1
Dec-02 -0.190525045   0.539118241 1
Jan-03 0.447181754   0.597234248 1
Feb-03 -2.419054384   0.702488761 1
Mar-03 -2.37584555   0.764394763 1
Apr-03 0.651235471   0.75453281 1
May-03 -2.97488236   0.785675448 0
Jun-03 -3.464429143   0.749453979 0
Jul-03 0.843491198   0.640399836 0
Aug-03 -2.616651823   0.412569919 0
Sep-03 0.598477243   0.010880936 0
Oct-03 -0.070509456   -0.608986516 0
Nov-03 0.208275655   -0.210197594 0
Dec-03 1.543697618   0.264430533 0
Jan-04 -0.56410499   0.725344518 0
Feb-04 2.165786874   1.107905229 0
Mar-04 2.679848786   1.449425152 0
Apr-04 2.938536266   1.697623179 0
May-04 2.006280021   2.001246448 0
Jun-04 2.945483544   2.262443045 0
Jul-04 2.808531753   2.492092522 0
Aug-04 1.912782288   2.721386816 0
Sep-04 2.068566785   2.791244786 0
Oct-04 2.219199165   2.837935091 0
Nov-04 3.788974195 3.788974195 2.907617211 0
Dec-04 2.815166092   2.928424346 0
Jan-05 3.676013989   2.87471277 0
Feb-05 3.428730947   2.908644976 0
Mar-05 3.093495989   2.967648501 0
Apr-05 3.64545639   2.911165617 0
May-05 2.971730775   2.902944447 0
Jun-05 2.479404016   2.933039491 0
Jul-05 1.985533464   2.854228368 0
Aug-05 3.550153512   2.697136536 0
Sep-05 1.847280167   2.577571357 0
Oct-05 1.084896562   2.450440217 0
Nov-05 4.725968722   2.417918301 0
Dec-05 2.600452628   2.528699768 0
Jan-06 1.999260498   2.582539723 0
Feb-06 1.33528047   2.468794854 0
Mar-06 2.317382168   2.398297933 0
Apr-06 1.370422852   2.463442207 0
May-06 4.466238323   2.27876538 0
Jun-06 3.643651691   2.008407344 0
Jul-06 2.113444711   1.875861892 0
Aug-06 0.692365396   1.781979216 0
Sep-06 3.013142187   1.755675474 0
Oct-06 1.482497117   1.763475319 0
Nov-06 -0.103875685 -0.103875685 1.666345484 0
Dec-06 0.941704183   1.449528036 0
Jan-07 0.476918085   1.253957946 0
Feb-07 0.604438664   1.21434843 0
Mar-07 2.416934147   1.135317756 0
Apr-07 1.458067165   1.078347951 0
May-07 2.047477966   1.279785526 0
Jun-07 0.858793299   1.474717008 0
Jul-07 0.204620951   1.738675405 0
Aug-07 1.650560759   2.112513405 0
Sep-07 0.158210661   2.240942594 0
Oct-07 2.970153316   2.324488329 0
Nov-07 3.242969915   2.536321885 0
Dec-07 2.273214145   2.693468009 0
Jan-08 5.480409665 5.480409665 2.925636297 1
Feb-08 4.573059083   3.105469737 1
Mar-08 1.530614258   3.120625891 1
Apr-08 4.349484703   3.038066899 1
May-08 4.240065757   2.71926767 1
Jun-08 2.437712484   2.139716647 1
Jul-08 4.197740684   1.232335426 1
Aug-08 1.973443584   0.202317457 1
Sep-08 0.199075539   -0.77269689 1
Oct-08 0.947872632   0.924235784 1
Nov-08 -2.385930899   -3.21232024 1
Dec-08 -6.007109593   -4.371953451 1
Jan-09 -8.016415895   -5.383650536 1
Feb-09 -6.650546624   -6.257677791 1
Mar-09 0.646124369   -6.934626664 1
Apr-09 1.110710132   -7.588572321 1
May-09 1.213766333 1.213766333 -8.038734046 1
Jun-09 -9.939652507   -8.071052522 1
Jul-09 -7.705624351   -7.863560659 0
Aug-09 -7.099845518   -7.574341627 0
Sep-09 -6.974408308   -7.068989116 0
Oct-09 -7.573339278   -6.304610008 0
Nov-09 -4.6686004   -5.488162396 0
Dec-09 -4.500083517   -4.701004323 0
Jan-10 -4.543637242   -4.057026346 0
Feb-10 -3.182068516   -3.54707549 0
Mar-10 0.986142208   -3.028044547 0
Apr-10 0.425593717   -2.43604346 0
May-10 0.304140055   0.955320803 0
Jun-10 -0.95748503   0.554477589 0
Jul-10 0.232320375   0.064471725 0
Aug-10 0.334328955   -0.699746726 0
Sep-10 -0.283182226   -0.416611248 0
Oct-10 -0.056539287   -0.145034134 0
Nov-10 -0.648056614   -0.054522036 0
Dec-10 1.09960984   0.011669737 0
Jan-11 1.616810122   0.13453638 0
Feb-11 -0.589115903   0.309906314 0
Mar-11 2.216156659   0.525856714 0
Apr-11 0.889958159   0.689003552 0
May-11 0.447401579   0.864916265 0
Jun-11 0.774379034   1.130532908 0
Jul-11 -0.015385014   1.283991861 0
Aug-11 1.657614096   1.388337702 0
Sep-11 1.907684325   1.435311452 0
Oct-11 1.668118285   1.364807944 0
Nov-11 1.849190921   1.493917053 0
Dec-11 4.977161734   1.649674347 0
Jan-12 1.422273098   1.695559897 0
Feb-12 2.109721303   1.678205162 0
Mar-12 0.644689465   1.539725901 0
Apr-12 0.769341166   1.310764001 0
May-12 1.771834016   1.066238756 0
Jun-12 1.293318504   0.717890655 0
Jul-12 0.566928709   0.46315865 0
Aug-12 0.658786735   0.368391708 0
Sep-12 -0.416990562   0.316934511 0
Oct-12 0.50229243   0.32546166 0
Nov-12 -0.849004254   0.299269823 0
Dec-12 -0.684997505   0.250569321 0
Jan-13 0.970864203   0.238609369 0
Feb-13 0.286723601   0.279428529 0
Mar-13 1.232714432   0.364854821 0
Apr-13 0.385967781   0.569922009 0
May-13 1.52660332   0.879118815 0
Jun-13 0.369737144   1.169428679 0
Jul-13 1.203471216     0
Aug-13 1.001904072     0
Sep-13 1.290123104     0
Oct-13 1.712206429     0
Nov-13 3.357220214     0
Dec-13 2.076214773     0

NOTES: Shaded areas indicate decelerations in the economy (growth cycles). Detrending and smoothing refer to a statistical procedure that makes it easier to observe changes in upturns and downturns of the data. Detrending removes the long term growth trend and smoothing eliminates month to month volatility.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Services Index and the Economy Revisited, Decem- ber 2014, available at www.bts.gov as of December 2014.