USA Banner

Official US Government Icon

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure Site Icon

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

U.S. Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Icon United States Department of Transportation United States Department of Transportation

Figure 5-5 Detrended Passenger TSI, Detrended and Smoothed Passenger TSI and Growth Cycles: January 1979–December 2013

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Grapic Version | Excel

  detrended Passenger TSI Passenger TSI turning points detrended and smoothed Passenger TSI Economic recession
Jan-79 0.49247295     0
Feb-79 0.64355269     0
Mar-79 1.493627869     0
Apr-79 1.307687969     0
May-79 0.701708639     0
Jun-79 1.945653418     0
Jul-79 3.255479349   1.757421692 0
Aug-79 2.591125458   1.817425428 0
Sep-79 2.725500625   1.818273836 0
Oct-79 2.174489735   1.687353392 0
Nov-79 2.361952437   1.566450402 0
Dec-79 0.995728243   1.498085548 0
Jan-80 1.292634794   1.314098337 1
Feb-80 1.283480508   1.079147741 1
Mar-80 0.874061838   0.847338895 1
Apr-80 -1.214836653   0.624391939 1
May-80 0.322561508   0.428935837 1
Jun-80 0.684044041   0.217135435 1
Jul-80 0.10139568   0.040026608 1
Aug-80 0.106394824   -0.119315112 0
Sep-80 -0.353181065   -0.363272898 0
Oct-80 -0.097555512   -0.491062151 0
Nov-80 -0.056948772   -0.430978244 0
Dec-80 -1.668580194   -0.468353664 0
Note: Shaded areas indicate growth cycles. Detrending and smoothing refer to a
statistical procedures that makes it easier to observe changes in upturns and
downturns of the data.
-0.293668603   -0.603016913 0
Feb-81 -0.954417371   -0.795208819 0
Mar-81 -2.743027149   -0.91424796 0
Apr-81 -0.664689755   -0.905612218 0
May-81 1.214428399   -0.951979343 0
Jun-81 -1.104832948   -0.947268696 0
Jul-81 -1.341645301   -0.935599158 1
Aug-81 -3.063169934   -0.961247507 1
Sep-81 -0.040555698   -0.90027352 1
Oct-81 -0.202923079   -0.868186408 1
Nov-81 -1.064392186   -1.013778714 1
Dec-81 -0.548081253   -1.185293271 1
Jan-82 -1.134098652   -1.256505195 1
Feb-82 -0.729547684   -1.256386957 1
Mar-82 -1.504521147   -1.316732726 1
Apr-82 -1.133105083   -1.474783373 1
May-82 -1.811371603   -1.585100905 1
Jun-82 -2.195382325   -1.641233677 1
Jul-82 -1.960182093   -1.616090363 1
Aug-82 -2.441795422 -2.441795422 -1.54243944 1
Sep-82 -2.110228677   -1.402076086 1
Oct-82 -1.926465611   -1.296697865 1
Nov-82 -1.988470436   -1.270906023 1
Dec-82 -0.971189525   -1.185956463 0
Jan-83 -0.107550839   -1.105426657 0
Feb-83 0.011526656   -1.080258091 0
Mar-83 1.123124989   -1.017798685 0
Apr-83 -1.231673917   -0.883469686 0
May-83 -1.093798542   -0.757391252 0
Jun-83 -0.874165956   -0.689717025 0
Jul-83 -1.348683105   -0.714551969 0
Aug-83 -2.449248836   -0.772036324 0
Sep-83 -0.603749511   -0.870595385 0
Oct-83 -0.20904881   -0.92118896 0
Nov-83 -0.680004821   -0.850643799 0
Dec-83 -0.6554737   -0.778319785 0
Jan-84 -1.019305303   -0.77015226 0
Feb-84 -0.456343417   -0.723777691 0
Mar-84 -0.77442239   -0.594242081 0
Apr-84 -0.548372346   -0.512709729 0
May-84 -0.084016235   -0.4608811 0
Jun-84 -0.148171933   -0.386368577 0
Jul-84 -1.878656533   -0.325905274 0
Aug-84 -0.806285761   -0.30772073 0
Sep-84 0.862142058   -0.245874797 0
Oct-84 0.281836062   -0.130382813 0
Nov-84 0.072997406   -0.019174503 0
Dec-84 0.379824636   0.070696612 0
Jan-85 -0.603484377   0.187302192 0
Feb-85 -0.435735283   0.301713239 0
Mar-85 0.689271862   0.24491569 0
Apr-85 0.759741032   0.110851019 0
May-85 1.27686982   0.071208435 0
Jun-85 0.647848784   0.049676117 0
Jul-85 0.123856659   0.068733255 0
Aug-85 -0.06293382   0.153983577 0
Sep-85 -1.244351066   0.15344684 0
Oct-85 -0.829222907   0.102558044 0
Nov-85 0.232634349   0.011000767 0
Dec-85 -0.296587924   -0.122792363 0
Jan-86 0.530299491   -0.191138817 0
Feb-86 0.476488559   -0.152104934 0
Mar-86 -0.235833667   -0.051963612 0
Apr-86 0.463515455   0.01247199 0
May-86 -0.624279249   0.033680863 0
Jun-86 -0.662037247   0.084433548 0
Jul-86 -0.206572225   0.108791941 0
Aug-86 1.204308263   0.118483822 0
Sep-86 -0.108201427   0.255777632 0
Oct-86 -0.418918089   0.453649047 0
Nov-86 0.331342484   0.669654708 0
Dec-86 0.822768379   0.861055389 0
Jan-87 -0.004455386   1.038647328 0
Feb-87 1.243848589   1.184510458 0
Mar-87 2.291857744   1.250548428 0
Apr-87 2.684738003 2.684738003 1.327695584 0
May-87 2.338634065   1.340999691 0
Jun-87 0.96866577   1.292954554 0
Jul-87 2.424931301   1.282041561 0
Aug-87 2.073519872   1.28481346 0
Sep-87 0.607498243   1.213061126 0
Oct-87 0.716913972   1.072896872 0
Nov-87 -0.485191009   0.95550511 0
Dec-87 0.486218594   0.917435317 0
Jan-88 0.070182569   0.869936457 0
Feb-88 1.235736199   0.766748997 0
Mar-88 0.577914121   0.728563681 0
Apr-88 1.034739526   0.745272489 0
May-88 1.171230253   0.788177318 0
Jun-88 1.222394562   0.806323166 0
Jul-88 1.031229866   0.804414398 0
Aug-88 0.990722259   0.732856247 0
Sep-88 0.773848284   0.561504828 0
Oct-88 0.951575312   0.419334473 0
Nov-88 0.309863549   0.306647646 0
Dec-88 0.126664386   0.260409594 0
Jan-89 0.383926348   0.247957725 0
Feb-89 -0.795403215   0.196877037 0
Mar-89 -1.503380507 -1.503380507 0.163375231 0
Apr-89 -0.296054367   0.135116516 0
May-89 -0.202459713   0.141513592 0
Jun-89 1.486371279   0.210727906 0
Jul-89 0.468408308   0.323752927 0
Aug-89 0.327607307   0.527163507 0
Sep-89 0.632919876   0.8670315 0
Oct-89 0.414294576   1.150632213 0
Nov-89 1.000674112   1.286941254 0
Dec-89 1.096997349   1.355548581 0
Jan-90 2.126193887   1.378115564 0
Feb-90 2.34418317   1.43308269 0
Mar-90 3.513864949 3.513864949 1.480627683 0
Apr-90 1.493117273   1.523831664 0
May-90 1.279785647   1.541387045 0
Jun-90 1.650701754   1.538680457 0
Jul-90 0.845685426   1.448625927 1
Aug-90 1.269541207   1.087081568 1
Sep-90 0.832065811   0.490017076 1
Oct-90 1.252044197   0.064350416 1
Nov-90 0.584253619   -0.083754986 1
Dec-90 1.448459735   -0.252761299 1
Jan-91 -0.386577205   -0.440379915 1
Feb-91 -3.820110364   -0.602069889 1
Mar-91 -4.651389325 -4.651389325 -0.745036195 1
Apr-91 -0.5576283   -0.904186567 0
May-91 -0.223998424   -1.037796838 0
Jun-91 -0.901665673   -1.184092803 0
Jul-91 -1.104793946   -1.320582314 0
Aug-91 -0.660538793   -1.190137258 0
Sep-91 -0.669045534   -0.882325626 0
Oct-91 -1.066453373   -0.825287722 0
Nov-91 -0.303895318   -0.946822347 0
Dec-91 -1.174494501   -0.884303991 0
Jan-92 -1.03937124   -0.595015047 0
Feb-92 -0.03663498   -0.208771382 0
Mar-92 -1.047385537   0.037824977 0
Apr-92 -2.792722391   0.093340605 0
May-92 -0.905735322   0.058175061 0
Jun-92 1.28051175   0.067143702 0
Jul-92 3.655963294   0.154894684 0
Aug-92 3.848551919   0.172200539 0
Sep-92 0.74017638   0.127999032 0
Oct-92 -1.143300203   0.193351334 0
Nov-92 -1.071021567   0.287900763 0
Dec-92 -0.192120861   0.151705514 0
Jan-93 0.084278685   -0.227595552 0
Feb-93 -0.744944382   -0.677906643 0
Mar-93 -1.399912295   -0.984379862 0
Apr-93 -0.871740387   -1.026452699 0
May-93 -0.557531031   -0.972928531 0
Jun-93 -2.336378525   -0.975101228 0
Jul-93 -1.830372005   -1.043963985 0
Aug-93 -1.472578972   -1.117750967 0
Sep-93 -1.294049979   -1.092811674 0
Oct-93 -0.118821941   -1.057651918 0
Nov-93 -0.810919792   -1.065267396 0
Dec-93 -0.504367364   -0.986685675 0
Jan-94 -1.256180981   -0.825341126 0
Feb-94 -1.175372296   -0.730117316 0
Mar-94 -0.37094133   -0.662473502 0
Apr-94 -1.05687722   -0.596320513 0
May-94 -0.555165669   -0.539729713 0
Jun-94 -0.452782591   -0.449516941 0
Jul-94 0.158301238   -0.33174304 0
Aug-94 -1.175880763   -0.24908969 0
Sep-94 0.032703359   -0.281693831 0
Oct-94 0.142096443   -0.329231765 0
Nov-94 0.286341029   -0.389502185 0
Dec-94 0.563478339   -0.495217402 0
Jan-95 0.502546943   -0.630669452 0
Feb-95 -0.950419806   -0.753812455 0
Mar-95 -1.378393208   -0.853886355 0
Apr-95 -1.190335763   -1.00045745 0
May-95 -1.868197207   -1.152459131 0
Jun-95 -1.676916252   -1.298982192 0
Jul-95 -1.868414314   -1.457231753 0
Aug-95 -2.104597277   -1.40177591 0
Sep-95 -1.440353725   -1.186585926 0
Oct-95 -1.902552754   -1.086661754 0
Nov-95 -1.317050121   -0.982200692 0
Dec-95 -1.349683967   -0.815514974 0
Jan-96 -1.382280236   -0.643574407 0
Feb-96 2.265347626   -0.429632914 0
Mar-96 0.570398972   -0.255688455 0
Apr-96 -0.74094782   -0.127568347 0
May-96 0.189480344   -0.015639208 0
Jun-96 0.26586342   0.064983529 0
Jul-96 0.315379609   0.131101241 0
Aug-96 0.846204651   0.093473035 0
Sep-96 -0.216488636   0.03131514 0
Oct-96 -0.051535268   0.073134585 0
Nov-96 -0.481768257   0.12114644 0
Dec-96 -0.250020139   0.106731769 0
Jan-97 -0.895118986   0.079603845 0
Feb-97 0.875109442   0.047766618 0
Mar-97 0.468847675   0.056723303 0
Apr-97 0.364270141   0.068185006 0
May-97 0.236546924   0.066778973 0
Jun-97 -0.127155263   0.092298486 0
Jul-97 0.0573281   0.172536209 0
Aug-97 0.340162714   0.218367285 0
Sep-97 0.504513746   0.144956924 0
Oct-97 -0.497456785   0.114551649 0
Nov-97 -0.069591533   0.167688307 0
Dec-97 -0.049728544   0.169652685 0
Jan-98 0.830294777   0.080062348 0
Feb-98 0.24964149   0.015658293 0
Mar-98 -0.667533036   -0.07440256 0
Apr-98 0.770924256   -0.100838433 0
May-98 1.105172606   -0.038616864 0
Jun-98 -0.948635888   0.018878882 0
Jul-98 -1.271359357   0.055765893 0
Aug-98 0.123152849   0.051536084 0
Sep-98 -1.439936848   0.13672252 0
Oct-98 0.812532837   0.201774457 0
Nov-98 0.11373652   0.155056548 0
Dec-98 1.146841294   0.192473248 0
Jan-99 0.519013199   0.415010908 0
Feb-99 0.459407655   0.612404095 0
Mar-99 1.167175275   0.805633537 0
Apr-99 0.497462419   1.043299286 0
May-99 0.257404639   1.235993939 0
Jun-99 0.79713288   1.300258762 0
Jul-99 2.323775704   1.244415244 0
Aug-99 1.26545429   1.352106165 0
Sep-99 2.055268302   1.614087783 0
Oct-99 3.021305683   1.904062171 0
Nov-99 2.529635344   2.291299784 0
Dec-99 0.273298221   2.74055345 0
Jan-00 0.052311825   3.077054777 0
Feb-00 3.510691134   3.322718329 0
Mar-00 4.403450645   3.576263511 0
Apr-00 4.220572343   3.777587292 0
May-00 5.827997438   3.952970191 0
Jun-00 6.008628059 6.008628059 4.183866082 0
Jul-00 5.188312366   4.483025565 0
Aug-00 4.29684288   4.656952166 0
Sep-00 5.108964078   4.658441232 0
Oct-00 4.799380647   4.685328317 0
Nov-00 4.960749967   4.663822508 0
Dec-00 3.383684975   4.56450617 0
Jan-01 4.12175267   4.51208515 0
Feb-01 3.615488721   4.571723024 0
Mar-01 4.334390628   3.753124924 1
Apr-01 4.93492241   2.132078645 1
May-01 4.597507952   0.819587228 1
Jun-01 4.855525441   -0.160907695 1
Jul-01 5.08331049   -0.931680415 1
Aug-01 5.833153751   -1.579503731 1
Sep-01 -16.0737012 -16.0737012 -2.183391819 1
Oct-01 -12.92306479   -2.847427557 1
Nov-01 -8.816598611   -3.472715276 1
Dec-01 -6.370844596   -4.068499604 0
Jan-02 -4.622263024   -4.724284678 0
Feb-02 -3.188255185   -5.425370296 0
Mar-02 -3.355179564   -5.310887507 0
Apr-02 -3.312365126   -4.427125455 0
May-02 -2.162109766   -3.793365774 0
Jun-02 -2.683680705   -3.362932433 0
Jul-02 -3.116325145   -3.034322609 0
Aug-02 -2.793265437   -2.932335673 0
Sep-02 -4.699695072   -3.025284562 0
Oct-02 -3.086781679   -3.290913396 0
Nov-02 -3.442649366   -3.668646611 0
Dec-02 -1.414393656   -3.993253172 0
Jan-03 -1.692078197   -4.181509737 0
Feb-03 -3.670753537   -4.282864321 0
Mar-03 -5.103454554   -4.312809552 0
Apr-03 -7.939182138   -4.335173396 0
May-03 -6.60088992   -4.377952219 0
Jun-03 -6.035458012   -4.374268909 0
Jul-03 -4.282705405   -4.400205812 0
Aug-03 -4.0593952   -4.227721437 0
Sep-03 -4.152250841   -3.837108547 0
Oct-03 -4.170958179   -3.30932909 0
Nov-03 -3.38516462   -2.728726148 0
Dec-03 -1.383478943   -2.215987158 0
Jan-04 -2.345478582   -1.767732625 0
Feb-04 1.12227184   -1.418770864 0
Mar-04 -0.52177058   -1.09718549 0
Apr-04 0.145840861   -0.716588646 0
May-04 -0.751442301   -0.331623981 0
Jun-04 0.420830119   -0.07305351 0
Jul-04 0.019115266   0.209613825 0
Aug-04 0.013866386   0.423369757 0
Sep-04 -0.507463452   0.55541241 0
Oct-04 1.318578693   0.720727658 0
Nov-04 0.364450463   0.901671228 0
Dec-04 1.072597287   1.064467176 0
Jan-05 1.982461222   1.179206207 0
Feb-05 1.924474389   1.260885836 0
Mar-05 1.845050556   1.403117658 0
Apr-05 1.746585667   1.44641826 0
May-05 1.990458582   1.389374568 0
Jun-05 1.586031987   1.37101845 0
Jul-05 1.607650138   1.303618906 0
Aug-05 0.385642602   1.243057241 0
Sep-05 2.534324062   1.180619355 0
Oct-05 -0.683994373   1.138454638 0
Nov-05 0.997974939   1.101493214 0
Dec-05 -0.001474024   1.051654664 0
Jan-06 1.438943472   0.97597337 0
Feb-06 1.014512175   0.876223976 0
Mar-06 1.256503511   0.721463754 0
Apr-06 1.323179508   0.687241864 0
May-06 1.526790561   0.797809115 0
Jun-06 0.853574812   0.944701624 0
Jul-06 0.523756264   1.090198115 0
Aug-06 -0.924448982   1.168943568 0
Sep-06 0.130170322   1.3356562 0
Oct-06 0.898833987   1.581918401 0
Nov-06 2.068760618   1.932508531 0
Dec-06 2.453160496   2.318273631 0
Jan-07 2.476224746   2.624167848 0
Feb-07 1.867121775   3.036665529 0
Mar-07 4.404997064   3.509883387 0
Apr-07 4.0849788   3.848243349 0
May-07 7.179154384 7.179154384 4.081843175 0
Jun-07 4.459573385   4.238994989 0
Jul-07 4.259218899   4.346598117 0
Aug-07 5.240032721   4.551637633 0
Sep-07 5.322917209   4.663891693 0
Oct-07 3.826726198   4.619846308 0
Nov-07 4.74726423   4.483444298 0
Dec-07 3.546300415   4.317585705 1
Jan-08 3.965559901   4.235837387 1
Feb-08 5.298734998   4.081809555 1
Mar-08 3.667481297   3.708364863 1
Apr-08 3.765405318   3.272244833 1
May-08 4.225079625   2.780698315 1
Jun-08 3.433041911   2.209068859 1
Jul-08 3.323790746   1.634465929 1
Aug-08 2.478792911   0.957478538 1
Sep-08 -0.878515593   0.243305559 1
Oct-08 -0.438721718   -0.385196331 1
Nov-08 -2.784404281   -1.056047711 1
Dec-08 -2.641138036   -1.796390589 1
Jan-09 -3.637471953   -2.418940532 1
Feb-09 -3.345930547   -2.957938137 1
Mar-09 -4.828004648   -3.343268267 1
Apr-09 -2.823154105   -3.601996729 1
May-09 -5.286794056 -5.286794056 -3.784741705 1
Jun-09 -4.823313499   -3.849296356 1
Jul-09 -3.361052478   -3.820710463 0
Aug-09 -3.772306369   -3.861706494 0
Sep-09 -3.875339428   -3.842221539 0
Oct-09 -3.651380978   -3.726531928 0
Nov-09 -3.957624456   -3.59142008 0
Dec-09 -3.017229488   -3.32117557 0
Jan-10 -2.575319053   -3.100471387 0
Feb-10 -5.391988189   -2.929408096 0
Mar-10 -2.314308088   -2.683057552 0
Apr-10 -2.56030001   -2.311589487 0
May-10 -2.306963787   -1.906523783 0
Jun-10 -1.317275541   -1.634317254 0
Jul-10 -1.570190033   -1.462534057 0
Aug-10 -1.457649824   -1.24780655 0
Sep-10 -0.277582936   -1.029503548 0
Oct-10 1.666096106   -0.844982309 0
Nov-10 0.446475349   -0.614132229 0
Dec-10 -0.88837259   -0.423418208 0
Jan-11 -0.581379226   -0.261091129 0
Feb-11 -2.232467851   -0.162314619 0
Mar-11 -0.234556369   -0.125874888 0
Apr-11 -0.211542015   -0.121264977 0
May-11 0.884680149   -0.14197676 0
Jun-11 0.068217022   -0.037500989 0
Jul-11 0.940167306   0.077631232 0
Aug-11 -1.597370923   0.266889147 0
Sep-11 0.736691702   0.483991281 0
Oct-11 0.762459338   0.586945353 0
Nov-11 0.853029325   0.603254601 0
Dec-11 1.212491938   0.566708496 0
Jan-12 0.080929556   0.497174253 0
Feb-12 1.647413328   0.51543051 0
Mar-12 1.096013655   0.563042965 0
Apr-12 0.928785684   0.428447543 0
May-12 0.135774411   0.24653329 0
Jun-12 -0.059983769   0.113143617 0
Jul-12 -0.600453716   0.085036319 0
Aug-12 0.381400263   0.042426478 0
Sep-12 -0.099380575   -0.068471615 0
Oct-12 -1.63175851   -0.116152391 0
Nov-12 -1.118694898   -0.086401317 0
Dec-12 -0.017135987   -0.010586116 0
Jan-13 0.635982338   0.073509623 0
Feb-13 0.069724345   0.136019073 0
Mar-13 0.012148416   0.180283063 0
Apr-13 0.868312289   0.299599494 0
May-13 0.910273585   0.463181263 0
Jun-13 0.985081888   0.554071829 0
Jul-13 0.372778352     0
Aug-13 0.908395009     0
Sep-13 0.435960438     0
Oct-13 0.696494809     0
Nov-13 0.479014251     0
Dec-13 0.566528448     0

NOTES:  Shaded areas indicate economic recessions (business cycles). Detrending and smoothing refer to a statistical procedure that makes it easier to observe changes in upturns and downturns of the data. Detrending removes the long term growth trend and smoothing eliminates month to month volatility.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Services Index and the Economy Revisited, Decem- ber 2014, available at www.bts.gov as of December 2014.