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Figure 5-4 Freight TSI and the Economic Growth Cycle, 1979 to 2015

Friday, February 17, 2017

Graphic Version | Excel

  detrended Freight TSI Freight TSI turning points Detrended and smoothed Freight TSI Growth cycle
Jan-79 1.7971     0
Feb-79 1.9061     0
Mar-79 6.6960     1
Apr-79 -5.1791     1
May-79 3.4627     1
Jun-79 4.2483     1
Jul-79 3.8376   2.2950 1
Aug-79 1.3584   2.1469 1
Sep-79 2.4848   1.8540 1
Oct-79 2.6364   1.8479 1
Nov-79 1.1511   1.7976 1
Dec-79 3.5667   1.2806 1
Jan-80 0.9449   0.6582 1
Feb-80 -0.7964   0.1814 1
Mar-80 2.3703   -0.1619 1
Apr-80 -1.0021   -0.5241 1
May-80 -1.9209   -0.6752 1
Jun-80 -2.7754   -0.7134 1
Jul-80 -4.0758   -0.7085 1
Aug-80 -2.1715   -0.5664 0
Sep-80 -2.2245   -0.4395 0
Oct-80 -1.3480   -0.3026 0
Nov-80 1.5098   -0.0471 0
Dec-80 2.2917   0.2539 0
Jan-81 2.3366   0.6198 0
Feb-81 1.2214   1.0026 0
Mar-81 3.3989 3.3989 1.2580 0
Apr-81 1.2548   1.4346 0
May-81 1.9538   1.4408 0
Jun-81 0.5739   1.2035 0
Jul-81 1.3576   0.8970 1
Aug-81 1.5827   0.5950 1
Sep-81 0.1500   0.1828 1
Oct-81 0.5171   -0.2418 1
Nov-81 -0.2073   -0.5420 1
Dec-81 -1.6875   -0.8182 1
Jan-82 -1.0388   -1.1236 1
Feb-82 -2.6524   -1.4866 1
Mar-82 -2.6197   -1.8840 1
Apr-82 -2.9159   -2.2573 1
May-82 -1.0823   -2.6684 1
Jun-82 -3.0180   -3.0104 1
Jul-82 -2.3802   -3.1594 1
Aug-82 -3.3912   -3.2601 1
Sep-82 -4.4130   -3.3827 1
Oct-82 -3.8808   -3.4183 1
Nov-82 -5.6755 -5.6755 -3.4313 1
Dec-82 -4.4264   -3.4233 1
Jan-83 -1.8753   -3.1443 1
Feb-83 -4.2332   -2.8169 1
Mar-83 -3.9810   -2.5954 0
Apr-83 -2.4087   -2.2696 0
May-83 -1.9029   -1.8691 0
Jun-83 -2.0037   -1.4269 0
Jul-83 3.3013   -1.0358 0
Aug-83 -1.2169   -0.6916 0
Sep-83 -1.2699   -0.2407 0
Oct-83 0.7944   0.2421 0
Nov-83 -0.7388   0.6201 0
Dec-83 1.2497   0.9625 0
Jan-84 1.8350   1.1218 0
Feb-84 0.3185   1.2022 0
Mar-84 2.2892   1.4425 0
Apr-84 2.9063 2.9063 1.5585 0
May-84 1.8560   1.5639 0
Jun-84 2.4544   1.6152 0
Jul-84 2.6656   1.5072 0
Aug-84 1.3497   1.2430 0
Sep-84 1.9298   0.9767 0
Oct-84 0.3778   0.6227 0
Nov-84 -0.1911   0.2322 1
Dec-84 1.9319   -0.1272 1
Jan-85 -1.4379   -0.5750 1
Feb-85 -2.7497   -1.0287 1
Mar-85 -1.0343   -1.4510 1
Apr-85 -2.2649   -1.8778 1
May-85 -2.3462   -2.2085 1
Jun-85 -1.9683   -2.5314 1
Jul-85 -3.6599   -2.6923 1
Aug-85 -3.2131   -2.5883 1
Sep-85 -3.6417   -2.4682 1
Oct-85 -4.2944 -4.2944 -2.3583 1
Nov-85 -3.4561   -2.2079 1
Dec-85 -2.5525   -2.0898 1
Jan-86 -0.8153   -1.8756 1
Feb-86 -0.8763   -1.5072 1
Mar-86 -0.0240   -1.1735 1
Apr-86 -0.6382   -0.8638 1
May-86 -0.3645   -0.5274 1
Jun-86 -1.1147   -0.2516 1
Jul-86 0.6267   -0.0824 1
Aug-86 1.3429   0.0354 1
Sep-86 -0.1887   0.1519 1
Oct-86 -0.3157   0.2484 1
Nov-86 0.6381   0.3691 1
Dec-86 -0.0258   0.5149 1
Jan-87 0.7187   0.5936 1
Feb-87 0.4151   0.6470 0
Mar-87 1.4817   0.7615 0
Apr-87 0.1727   0.9940 0
May-87 1.7205   1.2631 0
Jun-87 0.2994   1.5270 0
Jul-87 1.1027   1.8416 0
Aug-87 2.1476   2.0945 0
Sep-87 1.7535   2.2582 0
Oct-87 3.3235   2.4840 0
Nov-87 3.4579   2.7363 0
Dec-87 3.4860   3.0005 0
Jan-88 4.7578 4.7578 3.2605 0
Feb-88 2.4455   3.3621 0
Mar-88 3.3813   3.3898 0
Apr-88 3.6921   3.4382 0
May-88 4.2551   3.4062 0
Jun-88 4.1073   3.3797 0
Jul-88 3.5345   3.3231 0
Aug-88 2.1528   3.1883 0
Sep-88 2.4150   2.9918 0
Oct-88 3.8221   2.8373 0
Nov-88 2.1918   2.6736 0
Dec-88 4.1170   2.3457 0
Jan-89 2.7665   1.9607 1
Feb-89 1.2021   1.5690 1
Mar-89 -0.0905   1.2359 1
Apr-89 3.4563   0.8670 1
May-89 0.5604   0.4859 1
Jun-89 -0.0665   0.1590 1
Jul-89 -1.5309   -0.1801 1
Aug-89 -2.1829   -0.4233 1
Sep-89 -1.2439   -0.4568 1
Oct-89 -1.3741   -0.5405 1
Nov-89 -1.7579   -0.6810 1
Dec-89 0.2215   -0.6832 1
Jan-90 -1.4761   -0.5943 1
Feb-90 -0.3929   -0.4326 1
Mar-90 0.7018   -0.2799 1
Apr-90 0.6558   -0.1933 1
May-90 -0.0111   -0.1478 1
Jun-90 0.4518   -0.2258 1
Jul-90 0.0833   -0.3567 1
Aug-90 0.0832   -0.4765 1
Sep-90 0.1563   -0.7615 1
Oct-90 -0.6958   -1.1391 1
Nov-90 -1.3452   -1.4924 1
Dec-90 -2.0632   -1.8110 1
Jan-91 -2.3320   -2.0225 1
Feb-91 -2.4128   -2.1236 1
Mar-91 -4.1177   -2.1846 1
Apr-91 -3.5871   -2.2331 1
May-91 -4.2488 -4.2488 -2.2500 1
Jun-91 -2.9552   -2.2386 1
Jul-91 -1.5861   -2.1765 1
Aug-91 -0.6746   -2.0546 1
Sep-91 -0.5498   -1.8276 1
Oct-91 -1.1526   -1.5287 1
Nov-91 -1.2960   -1.2016 1
Dec-91 -1.8380   -0.9421 1
Jan-92 -1.0655   -0.7891 0
Feb-92 -0.7536   -0.7133 0
Mar-92 -0.3302   -0.7703 0
Apr-92 -0.2012   -0.8271 0
May-92 0.2155   -0.8366 0
Jun-92 -1.1901   -0.7977 0
Jul-92 0.3191   -0.6221 0
Aug-92 -0.7588   -0.4725 0
Sep-92 -1.8338   -0.5176 0
Oct-92 -1.2328   -0.6352 0
Nov-92 -1.4447   -0.7366 0
Dec-92 -0.7553   -0.7916 0
Jan-93 2.0664   -0.9307 0
Feb-93 -0.2935   -1.1793 0
Mar-93 -1.8727   -1.2986 0
Apr-93 -1.4822   -1.2881 0
May-93 -0.9379   -1.2287 0
Jun-93 -1.3557   -1.1964 0
Jul-93 -2.8543   -1.3128 0
Aug-93 -3.5506   -1.4163 0
Sep-93 -1.9065   -1.2954 0
Oct-93 -0.9076   -1.4110 0
Nov-93 -0.3438   -1.5717 0
Dec-93 -1.0818   -1.3761 0
Jan-94 -0.3993   -1.1071 0
Feb-94 -0.3122   -0.7996 0
Mar-94 1.0460   -0.4846 0
Apr-94 -7.1746   -0.2027 0
May-94 0.8973   0.0841 0
Jun-94 1.5050   0.7971 0
Jul-94 0.7409   1.7332 0
Aug-94 0.2323   2.4737 0
Sep-94 1.8714   2.9238 0
Oct-94 2.0816   3.4052 0
Nov-94 3.5491   3.7940 0
Dec-94 12.1382 12.1382 3.7820 1
Jan-95 8.8462   3.7614 1
Feb-95 8.2140   3.8067 1
Mar-95 3.3228   3.8624 1
Apr-95 2.1026   3.6994 1
May-95 0.9511   3.2815 1
Jun-95 1.1615   2.4686 1
Jul-95 0.5914   1.3621 1
Aug-95 1.4679   0.3228 1
Sep-95 1.9738   -0.4115 1
Oct-95 -1.9330   -0.8699 1
Nov-95 -2.4666   -1.2368 1
Dec-95 -1.3543   -1.5785 1
Jan-96 -4.2191   -1.9244 1
Feb-96 -3.6621   -2.2758 1
Mar-96 -2.4244   -2.7215 1
Apr-96 -3.1520   -3.0068 1
May-96 -2.5999   -3.0412 1
Jun-96 -3.4891   -3.1021 1
Jul-96 -3.0605   -3.0812 1
Aug-96 -3.3130   -2.8694 1
Sep-96 -3.9415 -3.9415 -2.7687 1
Oct-96 -2.8650   -2.6916 1
Nov-96 -2.3612   -2.5287 1
Dec-96 -2.9198   -2.4210 1
Jan-97 -2.1518   -2.2375 1
Feb-97 -0.6477   -1.9679 0
Mar-97 -3.0205   -1.5972 0
Apr-97 -0.7067   -1.1526 0
May-97 -1.1350   -0.8198 0
Jun-97 -2.3692   -0.4722 0
Jul-97 0.2230   -0.0350 0
Aug-97 -0.1249   0.3270 0
Sep-97 1.7654   0.6939 0
Oct-97 2.0991   1.0838 0
Nov-97 0.6627   1.4400 0
Dec-97 2.3985   1.8755 0
Jan-98 3.0227   2.2830 0
Feb-98 2.8647   2.5594 0
Mar-98 2.2746   2.7123 0
Apr-98 3.3548   2.7840 0
May-98 3.3513   2.8956 0
Jun-98 3.5985   2.9462 0
Jul-98 4.0344   2.8913 0
Aug-98 2.6972   2.8975 0
Sep-98 2.6129   3.0066 0
Oct-98 2.9726   3.0681 0
Nov-98 2.4663   3.0338 0
Dec-98 1.8099   2.9869 0
Jan-99 2.2936   2.9134 0
Feb-99 3.7442   2.9131 0
Mar-99 4.0116   3.0506 0
Apr-99 3.0938   3.2089 0
May-99 2.7896   3.3797 0
Jun-99 3.0349   3.6349 0
Jul-99 2.8334   3.8841 0
Aug-99 3.8910   4.0021 0
Sep-99 4.7204   3.8222 0
Oct-99 4.6644   3.3482 0
Nov-99 4.8735   2.9052 0
Dec-99 5.5265 5.5265 2.5586 0
Jan-00 4.5579   2.1405 0
Feb-00 4.3113   1.7464 0
Mar-00 -0.8729   1.3107 0
Apr-00 -3.3972   0.7276 1
May-00 -1.3511   0.1531 1
Jun-00 -1.1432   -0.4824 1
Jul-00 -3.0229   -1.1077 1
Aug-00 0.2883   -1.6730 1
Sep-00 -2.1331   -2.0498 1
Oct-00 -2.4755   -2.1616 1
Nov-00 -1.7764   -2.2345 1
Dec-00 -3.0752   -2.3907 1
Jan-01 -1.8462   -2.5594 1
Feb-01 -2.8519   -2.7013 1
Mar-01 -2.7537   -2.9160 1
Apr-01 -4.1987   -3.1065 1
May-01 -2.3004   -3.3012 1
Jun-01 -3.9410   -3.5482 1
Jul-01 -4.2758   -3.7724 1
Aug-01 -1.8629   -3.9182 1
Sep-01 -5.1365   -4.0539 1
Oct-01 -4.0437   -4.1316 1
Nov-01 -4.8798   -4.1154 1
Dec-01 -5.8996 -5.8996 -4.0780 1
Jan-02 -4.4033   -3.8974 1
Feb-02 -3.7948   -3.7205 1
Mar-02 -5.0670   -3.5414 1
Apr-02 -3.7499   -3.2369 1
May-02 -2.3602   -2.8843 1
Jun-02 -2.9838   -2.4564 1
Jul-02 -0.8994   -2.0961 1
Aug-02 -0.9938   -1.9113 1
Sep-02 -1.7058   -1.7370 1
Oct-02 -0.1670   -1.5358 1
Nov-02 -0.2953   -1.4717 1
Dec-02 -0.2133   -1.5147 1
Jan-03 -1.4427   -1.5715 1
Feb-03 -2.3194   -1.6761 1
Mar-03 -2.3609   -1.7369 1
Apr-03 -1.6269   -1.7259 1
May-03 -2.9432   -1.7571 0
Jun-03 -3.4343   -1.7200 0
Jul-03 -1.8109   -1.6096 0
Aug-03 -2.5926   -1.3886 0
Sep-03 -1.5679   -0.9923 0
Oct-03 -0.0394   -0.5881 0
Nov-03 -1.1726   -0.1877 0
Dec-03 1.5550   0.2883 0
Jan-04 -0.5612   0.7505 0
Feb-04 2.1033   1.1345 0
Mar-04 2.7280   1.4774 0
Apr-04 2.9844   1.7266 0
May-04 2.0538   2.0310 0
Jun-04 2.9926   2.2945 0
Jul-04 2.8553   2.5261 0
Aug-04 1.9572   2.7646 0
Sep-04 2.1126   2.8440 0
Oct-04 2.2618   2.8923 0
Nov-04 3.8321 3.8321 2.9644 0
Dec-04 2.8738   2.9876 0
Jan-05 3.6781   2.9354 0
Feb-05 3.5873   2.9701 0
Mar-05 3.1494   3.0298 0
Apr-05 3.7216   2.9737 0
May-05 3.0471   2.9664 0
Jun-05 2.5579   2.9972 0
Jul-05 2.0360   2.9188 0
Aug-05 3.6095   2.7663 0
Sep-05 1.8934   2.6511 0
Oct-05 1.1337   2.5236 0
Nov-05 4.7852   2.4899 0
Dec-05 2.6610   2.6009 0
Jan-06 2.0099   2.6559 0
Feb-06 1.5949   2.5415 0
Mar-06 2.3757   2.4699 0
Apr-06 1.4352   2.5335 0
May-06 4.5252   2.3456 0
Jun-06 3.7446   2.0715 0
Jul-06 2.1681   1.9368 0
Aug-06 0.7324   1.8461 0
Sep-06 3.0522   1.8224 0
Oct-06 1.5023   1.8272 0
Nov-06 -0.0938 -0.0938 1.7266 0
Dec-06 0.9627   1.5073 0
Jan-07 0.4735   1.3081 0
Feb-07 0.9551   1.2621 0
Mar-07 2.4462   1.1779 0
Apr-07 1.4815   1.1152 0
May-07 2.0645   1.3062 0
Jun-07 0.9409   1.4912 0
Jul-07 0.1903   1.7490 0
Aug-07 1.6072   2.1178 0
Sep-07 0.1572   2.2397 0
Oct-07 2.8919   2.3119 0
Nov-07 3.1008   2.5108 0
Dec-07 2.2084   2.6580 0
Jan-08 5.4142 5.4142 2.8807 1
Feb-08 4.8668   3.0470 1
Mar-08 1.4585   3.0515 1
Apr-08 4.2017   2.9576 1
May-08 4.1179   2.6184 1
Jun-08 2.4223   2.0172 1
Jul-08 4.0532   1.0930 1
Aug-08 1.7339   0.0645 1
Sep-08 0.1396   -0.9087 1
Oct-08 0.6556   -2.0792 1
Nov-08 -2.8030   -3.3912 1
Dec-08 -6.3168   -4.5731 1
Jan-09 -8.2428   -5.6099 1
Feb-09 -6.1595   -6.5125 1
Mar-09 -10.8707   -7.2132 1
Apr-09 -11.5629   -7.8895 1
May-09 -11.6045 -11.6045 -8.3710 1
Jun-09 -10.2200   -8.4353 1
Jul-09 -8.1896   -8.2106 0
Aug-09 -7.6844   -7.8732 0
Sep-09 -7.2595   -7.3054 0
Oct-09 -8.1750   -6.4336 0
Nov-09 -5.5298   -5.5282 0
Dec-09 -5.1318   -4.6898 0
Jan-10 -4.0367   -3.9842 0
Feb-10 -2.2665   -3.3928 0
Mar-10 -1.1377   -2.8276 0
Apr-10 -0.3731   -2.2131 0
May-10 -1.0635   -1.6638 0
Jun-10 -0.6405   -1.2049 0
Jul-10 -0.8338   -0.7204 0
Aug-10 -0.8481   -0.3747 0
Sep-10 -0.5301   -0.1194 0
Oct-10 -0.1564   0.0956 0
Nov-10 -0.3648   0.1814 0
Dec-10 0.7172   0.2799 0
Jan-11 1.7408   0.3775 0
Feb-11 0.2545   0.4906 0
Mar-11 2.4684   0.6737 0
Apr-11 1.1810   0.8228 0
May-11 -0.5585   0.9646 0
Jun-11 1.2182   1.2015 0
Jul-11 -0.3516   1.3392 0
Aug-11 1.3854   1.3980 0
Sep-11 1.6294   1.3756 0
Oct-11 1.2627   1.2266 0
Nov-11 1.6195   1.2517 0
Dec-11 4.4182   1.3286 0
Jan-12 1.3458   1.3538 0
Feb-12 2.0597   1.3251 0
Mar-12 0.1270   1.1502 0
Apr-12 -0.0543   0.8768 0
May-12 1.2782   0.6079 0
Jun-12 1.2274   0.2345 0
Jul-12 0.2436   -0.0404 0
Aug-12 0.1030   -0.1161 0
Sep-12 -1.2855   -0.1501 0
Oct-12 -2.3847   -0.1262 0
Nov-12 -1.1873   -0.1423 0
Dec-12 -1.7354   -0.1985 0
Jan-13 0.9024   -0.2380 0
Feb-13 0.6861   -0.2264 0
Mar-13 0.6830   -0.1498 0
Apr-13 -0.0357   0.0286 0
May-13 0.8730   0.2825 0
Jun-13 0.2844   0.5456 0
Jul-13 0.2376   0.6007 0
Aug-13 0.3888   0.4774 0
Sep-13 0.2651   0.4247 0
Oct-13 0.3467   0.4979 0
Nov-13 2.1757   0.6057 0
Dec-13 1.2152   0.6549 0
Jan-14 -0.7246   0.7085 0
Feb-14 -0.6466   0.7824 0
Mar-14 0.7514   0.8734 0
Apr-14 1.6523   1.0212 0
May-14 1.7714   1.1405 0
Jun-14 0.5677   1.2643 0
Jul-14 1.2404   1.4708 0
Aug-14 1.1605   1.5808 0
Sep-14 1.6771   1.5765 0
Oct-14 2.4812   1.4996 0
Nov-14 2.9049   1.3391 0
Dec-14 3.4562   1.2195 0
Jan-15 1.9900   1.1450 0
Feb-15 -0.7195   1.0474 0
Mar-15 0.7204   0.8936 0
Apr-15 -0.1633   0.6728 0
May-15 -0.2635   0.3306 0
Jun-15 -0.2685   -0.1239 0
Jul-15 0.2878     0
Aug-15 -0.2296     0
Sep-15 -0.6229     0
Oct-15 -0.5171     0
Nov-15 -2.3112     0
Dec-15 -2.2353     0

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Services Index, available at www.bts.gov as of May 2016.