December 2014 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, December 2009- December 2014

Freight Transportation Services Index, December 2009- December 2014

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, was virtually unchanged in December from November, failing to rise after five consecutive months of increases, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The December 2014 index level (123.8) was 30.9 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of freight shipments in December measured by the Freight TSI (123.8) was less than one-tenth of 1 percent below the all-time high level of 123.9 in November 2014 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The November index was revised to 123.9 from 123.2 in last month’s release but still remains an all-time high. July, September and October indexes were also revised up while the August index was revised down.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: Trucking, rail carloads, and waterborne grew in December but air freight, pipeline, and rail intermodal decreased, resulting in the overall freight index remaining almost level. While the economy as measured by income and employment grew in December, it is notable that inventories, closely tied to freight transportation, declined in December for the first time in 19 months.

Trend: The Freight TSI was essentially stable in December, down slightly from an all-time high after increases for five consecutive months. Fourth quarter 2014 represented the second consecutive quarter of rapid growth after stability in the first half of the year. The third and fourth quarters of 2014 were the first two consecutive quarters with growth above 1.5% since the first quarter of 2010. Fourth-quarter growth (1.7 percent) was slower than growth in the third quarter (2.4 percent). After dipping to 94.6 in April 2009, the index rose 30.9 percent in the succeeding 68 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in December 2014 (123.8) were 30.9 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.6). The December 2014 level was below the historic peak reached in November 2014 (123.9).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 4.2 percent in December compared to the end of 2013 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 21.8 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of December 2009 and are up 11.4 percent in the 10 years from December 2004 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: December 2014 freight shipments were up 4.2 percent from December 2013 (Tables 4, 5).

4^th quarter changes: The Freight TSI rose 0.1 percent in the 1^st quarter, fell 0.1 percent in the 2^nd quarter, rose 2.4 percent in the 3^rd quarter, and rose 1.7 percent in the 4^th quarter of 2014 (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the January 2015 index is scheduled for March 11.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.4 percent in December from its November level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI December 2014 level of 119.4 was 1.3 percent above the December 2013 level (Table 7). The index is up 8.1 percent in five years and up 12.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.1 percent in December from its November level (Table 8). The combined TSI December 2014 level of 122.6 was 3.3 percent above the December 2013 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 17.5 percent in five years and up 11.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.