Freight Shipments Fell 1.2% in April from March
Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, April 2008-April 2013
Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry fell 1.2 percent in April from March, declining after five consecutive monthly increases, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today. The April 2013 index level (112.4) was 18.5 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, 2A).
BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the level of freight shipments in April measured by the Freight TSI (112.4) was 2.4 percent below the all-time high level of 115.2 in December 2011 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
Beginning with the April release, BTS improved procedures and refined the TSI methodology. As a result there have been minor changes in monthly numbers released previously. Documentation will be made available in the near future.
Analysis: The 1.2% decline in freight transportation was driven by declines in shipments by water, pipeline shipments, and rail intermodal. Waterborne freight reductions in April were partially due to floods and barge accidents that interfered with river operations. Trucking was stable in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The stability in trucking, the decline in rail intermodal, and the decline in the overall Freight TSI were consistent with a slight decline in manufacturing output, and a larger decline in housing that took place in April.
Trend: Even with the April decrease to 112.4, the index has remained above its 2012 range for four consecutive months. The April level is a return to the level of January 2013, prior to increases in February and March. The April index was still higher than the index had been during any month between April 2009 and the beginning of 2013 except for December 2011, when it reached the all-time high. After dipping to 94.8 in April 2009, the index rose 18.5 percent in the succeeding 48 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.
Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in April 2013 (112.4) were 18.5 percent higher than the all-time low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The April 2013 level is down 2.4 percent from the historic peak reached in December 2011 (115.2).
Year-to-date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.2 percent in April compared to the end of 2012 (Table 3).
Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 1.1 percent in the five years from the recession level of April 2008 and are up 8.5 percent in the 10 years from April 2003 (Table 5).
Same month of previous year: April 2013 freight shipments were up 1.2 percent from April 2012 (Tables 4, 5).
The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the May 2013 index is scheduled for July 2013.
For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.1 percent in April from its March level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI April 2013 level of 116.9 was 0.8 percent above the April 2012 level (Table 7). The index is up 0.4 percent in five years and up 25.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.8 percent in April from its March level (Table 8). The combined TSI April 2013 level of 113.7 was 1.1 percent above the April 2012 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 0.8 percent in five years and up 13.0 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each months data are added.
Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since October 2012
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| October | 108.5 | -2.4 | 114.1 | -2.1 | 110.1 | -2.3 |
| November | 110.8 | 2.1 | 114.8 | 0.6 | 112.0 | 1.7 |
| December | 112.2 | 1.2 | 116.0 | 1.0 | 113.3 | 1.2 |
| January | 112.4 | 0.2 | 116.1 | 0.1 | 113.5 | 0.2 |
| February | 113.2 | 0.6 | 116.0 | -0.1 | 114.0 | 0.4 |
| March | 113.8 | 0.6 | 116.8 | 0.7 | 114.7 | 0.6 |
| April | 112.4 | -1.2 | 116.9 | 0.1 | 113.7 | -0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.6 | 1.1 | -3.5 | 0.2 |
| February | 1.6 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| March | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 |
| April | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.6 | -1.2 |
| May | 0.7 | -2.0 | 0.5 | |
| June | -0.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | |
| July | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.2 | |
| August | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.5 | |
| September | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| October | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2.4 | |
| November | -0.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | |
| December | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2010-2013
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 102.4 | 109.6 | 111.1 | 112.4 |
| February | 104.0 | 107.7 | 111.0 | 113.2 |
| March | 104.0 | 109.3 | 110.5 | 113.8 |
| April | 104.7 | 108.7 | 111.1 | 112.4 |
| May | 105.4 | 106.6 | 111.6 | |
| June | 105.0 | 108.7 | 111.8 | |
| July | 105.7 | 108.9 | 111.5 | |
| August | 105.3 | 109.6 | 111.0 | |
| September | 106.5 | 110.6 | 111.2 | |
| October | 107.0 | 110.6 | 108.5 | |
| November | 106.3 | 110.8 | 110.8 | |
| December | 108.5 | 115.2 | 112.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2004-2013
Percent change to April from December of the previous year
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| 2005 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | -0.6 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| 2007 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 2008 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2009 | -5.7 | 0.3 | -4.0 |
| 2010 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| 2011 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2012 | -3.5 | -0.2 | -2.6 |
| 2013 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| April Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 110.7 | 6.8 |
| 2005 | 113.0 | 2.1 |
| 2006 | 111.4 | -1.4 |
| 2007 | 110.4 | -0.9 |
| 2008 | 111.1 | 0.7 |
| 2009 | 94.8 | -14.7 |
| 2010 | 104.7 | 10.4 |
| 2011 | 108.7 | 3.9 |
| 2012 | 111.1 | 2.2 |
| 2013 | 112.4 | 1.2 |
OURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2013 (April to April)
| Since April . . . | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to April 2013 | Passenger TSI Percent change to April 2013 | Combined TSI Percent change to April 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 2011 | 2 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 2010 | 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| 2009 | 4 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 14.7 |
| 2008 | 5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 2006 | 7 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 2005 | 8 | -0.5 | 7.8 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 9 | 1.6 | 12.4 | 4.4 |
| 2003 | 10 | 8.5 | 25.6 | 13.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| February | -2.2 | -1.2 | 1.5 | -0.1 |
| March | 2.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| April | -0.4 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| May | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |
| June | 1.0 | -0.5 | -0.1 | |
| July | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.9 | |
| August | 0.6 | -1.4 | 1.2 | |
| September | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | |
| October | 1.7 | 0.0 | -2.1 | |
| November | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| December | -1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| April Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 104.1 | 11.8 |
| 2005 | 108.5 | 4.2 |
| 2006 | 111.6 | 2.9 |
| 2007 | 116.4 | 4.2 |
| 2008 | 116.5 | 0.1 |
| 2009 | 110.3 | -5.3 |
| 2010 | 110.8 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 114.7 | 3.5 |
| 2012 | 116.0 | 1.2 |
| 2013 | 116.9 | 0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.5 | 0.9 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| February | 0.4 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| March | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 0.6 |
| April | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| May | 0.7 | -1.2 | 0.4 | |
| June | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | |
| July | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | |
| August | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| September | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| October | 0.8 | 0.0 | -2.3 | |
| November | -0.7 | 0.1 | 1.7 | |
| December | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April Combined TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| April Combined TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 109.0 | 8.3 |
| 2005 | 111.9 | 2.7 |
| 2006 | 111.7 | -0.2 |
| 2007 | 112.2 | 0.5 |
| 2008 | 112.8 | 0.5 |
| 2009 | 99.1 | -12.1 |
| 2010 | 106.4 | 7.3 |
| 2011 | 110.4 | 3.8 |
| 2012 | 112.5 | 1.9 |
| 2013 | 113.7 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.