Freight Shipments Rose 1.2% in February from January
Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, February 2008-February 2013
Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry rose 1.2 percent in February from January, rising for the fourth consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today. The February 2013 index level (113.9) was 20.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the recession and the highest level since December 2011 (Tables 1, 2A).
BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the level of freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (113.9) was 1.1 percent below (Table 3) the revised all-time high level of 115.2 in December 2011 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.
Beginning with this release, BTS has improved procedures and refined the TSI methodology. As a result there have been revisions in monthly numbers released previously. Documentation will be made available in the near future.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally adjusted so that trends reflect changes beyond normal monthly fluctuations.
Analysis: The Freight TSI increased for a fourth consecutive month in February 2013, with growth across most freight modes. This increase was consistent with several other indicators pointing to economic growth in February.
Trend: With the February increase to 113.9, the index has exceeded its 2012 range for two months in a row. With four consecutive monthly increases, the February index was at its second highest level since April 2009 during the recession exceeded only by December 2011. January 2013 was the third highest level since April 2009. After dipping to 94.8 in April 2009, the index rose 20.1 percent in the succeeding 46 months. For additional historical data, go to Overview of the TSI. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Passenger Index: The TSI for for-hire passenger travel fell 0.1 percent in February from its January level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI February 2013 level of 115.7 was 0.9 percent below the February 2012 level (Table 7). The index is down 2.0 percent in five years and up 20.6 percent in ten years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.8 percent in February from its January level (Table 8). The combined TSI February 2013 level of 114.4 was 1.6 percent above the February 2012 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 0.8 percent in five years and up 12.7 percent in ten years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.
Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since August 2012
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| August | 111.0 | -0.4 | 116.3 | 1.1 | 112.5 | 0.0 |
| September | 111.2 | 0.2 | 116.5 | 0.2 | 112.7 | 0.2 |
| October | 108.4 | -2.5 | 114.1 | -2.1 | 110.0 | -2.4 |
| November | 110.9 | 2.3 | 114.8 | 0.6 | 112.0 | 1.8 |
| December | 112.2 | 1.2 | 115.9 | 1.0 | 113.2 | 1.1 |
| January | 112.6 | 0.3 | 115.8 | -0.1 | 113.5 | 0.2 |
| February | 113.9 | 1.2 | 115.7 | -0.1 | 114.4 | 0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.6 | 1.0 | -3.5 | 0.3 |
| February | 1.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1.2 |
| March | 0.1 | 1.7 | -0.2 | |
| April | 0.5 | -0.9 | 0.1 | |
| May | 0.6 | -2.0 | 0.5 | |
| June | -0.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | |
| July | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | |
| August | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.4 | |
| September | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| October | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | |
| November | -0.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | |
| December | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2010-2013
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 102.4 | 109.6 | 111.1 | 112.6 |
| February | 103.9 | 107.6 | 111.0 | 113.9 |
| March | 104.1 | 109.5 | 110.7 | |
| April | 104.6 | 108.6 | 110.8 | |
| May | 105.3 | 106.4 | 111.3 | |
| June | 105.0 | 108.7 | 111.8 | |
| July | 105.7 | 108.9 | 111.4 | |
| August | 105.3 | 109.6 | 111.0 | |
| September | 106.5 | 110.7 | 111.2 | |
| October | 107.0 | 110.6 | 108.4 | |
| November | 106.4 | 110.9 | 110.9 | |
| December | 108.5 | 115.2 | 112.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 3: Annual Change in Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes, 2004-2013
Percent change to February from December of the previous year
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 2005 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2007 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2008 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 2009 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2011 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.8 |
| 2012 | -3.7 | 0.5 | -2.5 |
| 2013 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| February Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 109.1 | 5.4 |
| 2005 | 113.0 | 3.5 |
| 2006 | 111.4 | -1.4 |
| 2007 | 110.2 | -1.1 |
| 2008 | 111.6 | 1.2 |
| 2009 | 100.7 | -9.8 |
| 2010 | 103.9 | 3.2 |
| 2011 | 107.6 | 3.6 |
| 2012 | 111.0 | 3.1 |
| 2013 | 113.9 | 2.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2013 (February to February)
| Since February . . . | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to February 2013 | Passenger TSI Percent change to February 2013 | Combined TSI Percent change to February 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1 | 2.7 | -0.9 | 1.6 |
| 2011 | 2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| 2010 | 3 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 8.8 |
| 2009 | 4 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 10.7 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2.1 | -2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 |
| 2005 | 8 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 |
| 2004 | 9 | 4.4 | 11.6 | 6.2 |
| 2003 | 10 | 10.0 | 20.6 | 12.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| February | -2.4 | -1.4 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| March | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | |
| April | -0.4 | 1.4 | -0.6 | |
| May | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | |
| June | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | |
| July | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.9 | |
| August | 0.6 | -1.4 | 1.1 | |
| September | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | |
| October | 1.6 | 0.0 | -2.1 | |
| November | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| December | -1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| February Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 103.6 | 8.0 |
| 2005 | 107.9 | 4.1 |
| 2006 | 110.2 | 2.1 |
| 2007 | 113.5 | 3.0 |
| 2008 | 118.1 | 4.1 |
| 2009 | 110.0 | -6.8 |
| 2010 | 108.2 | -1.7 |
| 2011 | 112.0 | 3.5 |
| 2012 | 116.8 | 4.3 |
| 2013 | 115.7 | -0.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013
Percent change from previous month
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | % Change | % Change | % Change | |
| January | 0.5 | 0.9 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| February | 0.3 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| March | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.1 | |
| April | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | |
| May | 0.6 | -1.2 | 0.3 | |
| June | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | |
| July | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.5 | |
| August | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| September | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| October | 0.8 | 0.0 | -2.4 | |
| November | -0.7 | 0.1 | 1.8 | |
| December | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February Combined TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| February Combined TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 107.8 | 6.2 |
| 2005 | 111.7 | 3.7 |
| 2006 | 111.3 | -0.4 |
| 2007 | 111.3 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | 113.5 | 2.0 |
| 2009 | 103.3 | -9.0 |
| 2010 | 105.1 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 108.9 | 3.6 |
| 2012 | 112.6 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | 114.4 | 1.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as
containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products
and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.