Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, September 2009- September 2014

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.3 percent in September from August, rising for the third consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The September 2014 index level (121.5) was 28.5 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of freight shipments in September measured by the Freight TSI (121.5) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The August index was revised to 121.2 from 120.9 in last month’s release. There were smaller upward revisions for each of the previous months in 2014.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: All freight modes grew in September except rail carloads, which were unchanged. During the month, several other indicators of related parts of the economy that often impact transportation increased. In particular, industrial production grew 1 percent after several months of slow or negative growth. Manufacturers’ shipments and inventories both increased – inventories have increased for 22 of 23 months to reach an historic high. 

Trend: The Freight TSI increased for the third month in a row in September, reaching an all-time high. The increase was a return to growth after a decline in June. Third quarter 2014 also represented a return to growth after two quarters of modest quarterly declines.  The quarterly growth (2.3 percent) was the most rapid since the fourth quarter of 2011. After dipping to 94.6 in April 2009, the index rose 28.5 percent in the succeeding 65 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in September 2014 (121.5) were 28.5 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.6). The September 2014 level is the all-time highest level that the freight index has reached.

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.1 percent in September compared to the end of 2013 (Table 3)

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 22.4 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of September 2009 and are up 10.0 percent in the 10 years from September 2004 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: September 2014 freight shipments were up 4.2 percent from September 2013 (Tables 4, 5).

3rd quarter changes: The Freight TSI rose 2.3 percent in the 3rd quarter after falling 0.2 percent in the 1st quarter and 0.1 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2014 (Table 10).  

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec. 10.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in September from its August level (Table 6).  The Passenger TSI September 2014 level of 120.0 was 2.2 percent above the September 2013 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.5 percent in five years and up 15.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5).  The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.3 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2014 level of 121.2 was 3.6 percent above the September 2013 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 18.3 percent in five years and up 11.3 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each months data are added.    

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index.  A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since March 2014

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
March	118.9	1.6	119.2	2.0	119.1	1.7
April	119.4	0.4	119.4	0.1	119.5	0.4
May	120.5	0.9	120.1	0.6	120.4	0.8
June	118.8	-1.4	119.5	-0.5	119.1	-1.1
July	120.3	1.3	119.8	0.3	120.3	1.0
August	121.2	0.7	119.7	-0.1	120.9	0.5
September	121.5	0.3	120.0	0.2	121.2	0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change	2014 % Change
January	1.2	-3.4	0.8	-2.6
February	-1.1	0.2	0.8	0.9
March	1.0	-0.9	0.3	1.6
April	-0.1	0.5	-0.9	0.4
May	-1.6	0.9	1.1	0.9
June	1.5	0.7	0.4	-1.4
July	0.0	-0.3	0.0	1.3
August	0.5	-0.6	0.4	0.7
September	0.5	-0.1	0.1	0.3
October	0.4	-1.9	-0.2
November	0.1	1.7	2.6
December	3.6	1.1	-0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2011-2014

	2011	2012	2013	2014
January	110.3	111.7	114.0	115.9
February	109.2	111.9	115.0	117.0
March	110.3	110.9	115.3	118.9
April	110.2	111.6	114.3	119.4
May	108.4	112.6	115.6	120.5
June	110.1	113.4	116.1	118.8
July	110.0	113.1	116.1	120.3
August	110.6	112.3	116.5	121.2
September	111.2	112.2	116.6	121.5
October	111.6	110.1	116.4
November	111.7	111.9	119.4
December	115.7	113.2	119.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2005-2014

Percent change to September from December of the previous year

Year	Freight	Passenger	Combined
2005	0.2	3.6	1.2
2006	0.7	1.8	1.0
2007	-1.0	3.4	0.3
2008	-3.3	-3.6	-3.4
2009	-1.0	-0.7	-0.9
2010	5.3	2.6	4.5
2011	1.9	1.7	1.9
2012	-3.0	0.0	-2.1
2013	3.0	1.0	2.4
2014	2.1	1.6	1.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	September Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2005	111.4	0.8
2006	113.0	1.4
2007	109.5	-3.0
2008	107.2	-2.2
2009	99.3	-7.3
2010	107.0	7.7
2011	111.2	3.9
2012	112.2	0.9
2013	116.6	4.0
2014	121.5	4.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2014 (September to September)

Since September . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI Percent change to September 2014	Passenger TSI Percent change to September 2014	Combined TSI Percent change to September 2014
2013	1	4.2	2.2	3.6
2012	2	8.3	3.6	6.9
2011	3	9.3	4.1	7.7
2010	4	13.6	5.9	11.2
2009	5	22.4	9.5	18.3
2008	6	13.4	7.0	11.3
2007	7	11.0	2.1	8.1
2006	8	7.6	8.3	7.6
2005	9	9.1	8.6	8.8
2004	10	10.0	15.1	11.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change	2014 % Change
January	-0.2	-0.8	0.3	-1.0
February	-1.2	1.7	0.0	0.0
March	1.6	-0.9	-0.7	2.0
April	0.2	-0.3	1.0	0.1
May	1.0	-0.6	0.0	0.6
June	-0.4	0.3	0.6	-0.5
July	0.9	-0.2	-0.7	0.3
August	-2.8	0.9	0.8	-0.1
September	2.8	-0.2	-0.3	0.2
October	0.2	-1.6	0.7
November	-0.3	1.4	0.0
December	0.6	0.6	-0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	September Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2005	110.4	6.0
2006	110.8	0.3
2007	117.5	6.1
2008	112.1	-4.6
2009	109.6	-2.3
2010	113.3	3.4
2011	115.3	1.7
2012	115.7	0.4
2013	117.4	1.4
2014	120.0	2.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change	2014 % Change
January	0.7	-2.6	0.6	-2.1
February	-1.1	0.7	0.6	0.7
March	1.2	-0.9	0.0	1.7
April	0.0	0.3	-0.3	0.4
May	-0.9	0.5	0.8	0.8
June	0.9	0.6	0.5	-1.1
July	0.3	-0.3	-0.2	1.0
August	-0.5	-0.2	0.5	0.5
September	1.2	-0.1	0.0	0.3
October	0.3	-1.8	0.1
November	0.0	1.6	1.8
December	2.7	1.0	-0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the September Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	September Combined TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2005	111.3	2.3
2006	112.6	1.1
2007	112.1	-0.4
2008	108.9	-2.9
2009	102.4	-5.9
2010	109.0	6.4
2011	112.5	3.2
2012	113.3	0.8
2013	116.9	3.2
2014	121.2	3.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 10: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2005-2014

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year	1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth	2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth	3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth	4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2005	0.9	-0.5	-0.3	0.7
2006	-0.2	0.9	0.0	-2.1
2007	1.1	-1.9	-0.2	1.2
2008	-0.8	-0.1	-2.4	-6.4
2009	-4.4	0.1	3.5	2.3
2010	3.5	1.0	0.7	1.9
2011	1.1	-0.2	1.0	4.0
2012	-4.1	2.2	-1.1	0.9
2013	1.9	0.6	0.5	2.1
2014	-0.2	-0.1	2.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 11: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2005-2014

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year	1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth	2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth	3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth	4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2005	1.2	0.9	1.5	-1.5
2006	2.1	-0.1	-0.2	2.6
2007	2.6	0.1	0.7	-1.0
2008	0.2	-0.1	-3.7	-1.6
2009	-1.7	0.0	1.0	0.8
2010	0.2	1.0	1.3	0.0
2011	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.5
2012	0.1	-0.6	0.5	0.4
2013	-0.4	1.7	-0.3	0.6
2014	1.0	0.2	0.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 12: Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2005-2014

Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year	1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth	2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth	3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth	4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
2005	1.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1
2006	0.4	0.6	0.0	-0.7
2007	1.5	-1.3	0.1	0.5
2008	-0.5	-0.1	-2.8	-5.1
2009	-3.6	0.1	2.7	1.9
2010	2.5	1.0	0.9	1.3
2011	0.8	0.1	1.0	2.9
2012	-2.8	1.4	-0.6	0.7
2013	1.2	1.0	0.2	1.6
2014	0.2	0.0	1.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.