Chapter 8 The State of Transportation Statistics
Highlights
- Progress is being made on quantifying the contributions of transportation to the economy and the uses of transportation by major industries.
- BTS is improving the frequency of updates to data on the extent and characteristics of transportation infrastructure, and has compiled a National Transit Map to fill a long-standing gap in data on the transportation network.
- BTS is establishing a new port performance freight statistics program to publish annually nationally comparable measures of capacity and throughput.
- Extensive data are available on local passenger travel and most long-distance freight movement, but data gaps continue for long-distance travel, domestic movement of international trade, and local freight movement.
- Cost data are available for most forms of passenger travel but are limited for freight movement.
- Substantial data are available on crashes related to transportation, but the availability of data on causation of safety problems varies by mode of transportation, and the integration of data on motor vehicle crashes, the conditions surrounding each crash, and consequences of the crash remains elusive.
- “Big data” and other alternative data sources may offer ways to update and improve the detail of traditional statistics, but research is needed to determine the reliability and validity of statistics from these sources, to establish institutional arrangements for access to large proprietary databases, and to integrate these new data sources with traditional forms of data and analysis to provide effective information for decision makers. Real-time data may offer ways to validate traditional statistics.
- The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) has achieved significant progress in improving the state of transportation statistics over the last 25 years and will continue to create increasingly robust, credible statistics that support evidence- based decision making and that are useful and used throughout the Nation.
Congress requires that the Transportation Statistics Annual Report includes an assessment of the state of transportation statistics and efforts to improve those statistics. Transportation statistics cover the following:
- transportation safety;
- the state of good repair of transportation infrastructure;
- the extent, connectivity, and condition of the transportation system;
- economic efficiency across the entire transportation sector;
- the effects of the transportation system on global and domestic economic competitiveness;
- demographic, economic, and other variables influencing travel behavior;
- transportation-related variables that influence the domestic economy and global competitiveness;
- economic costs and impacts for passenger travel and freight movement;
- intermodal and multimodal passenger movement;
- intermodal and multimodal freight movement; and
- consequences of transportation for the human and natural environment.1
2016 marks the 50th anniversary of the Department of Transportation Act of 1966,2 which established the Department and gave the Secretary authority to “promote and undertake the development, collection, and dissemination of technological, statistical, economic, and other information relevant to domestic and international transportation.”3 Shortly after its creation, the new department published its agenda for improving the state of transportation statistics, including establishment of surveys of passenger travel and freight movement, development of data integration and analysis methods, development of geo-coding systems and data on transportation networks, establishment of best practices for data collection by local governments, and research into new methods of data collection with an emphasis on reducing respondent burden [USDOT 1969].
2016 also marks the 25th anniversary of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991, which established the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).4 Several of the BTS provisions in ISTEA paralleled recommendations in a special report by the Transportation Research Board that called for collection of passenger and freight flow data, development of a national transportation performance monitoring system, and research into new methods of data collection such as electronic linking of administrative records and capturing data from traffic monitoring systems [TRB 1991].
BTS highlighted the history of transportation statistics since ISTEA in Two Decades of Change in Transportation: Reflections from Transportation Statistics Annual Reports 1994–2014. That report noted that most measures requested by public officials today are variations on those that BTS was mandated to collect or compile in the 1990s. Two Decades documented significant progress in providing the requested measures, identified persistent gaps in desired information that remain, and highlighted promising new data sources [USDOT BTS 2015]. A major challenge facing BTS today is how to interpret and establish the credibility of new data (such as “big data” and administrative records) that can be applied to long-standing topics for decision makers in transportation.
This chapter reviews the current strengths and weaknesses of transportation statistics, identifies major gaps in those statistics, and explores new data sources that could be used to fill the gaps. The chapter concludes with strategies for assuring that statistical information provides adequate support for evidence-based decision making.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Current Statistics on the Extent, Use, Condition, and Performance of the Transportation System
Table 8-1 summarizes existing statistics on the extent, use, condition, and performance of the transportation system as well as gaps in those statistics. Statistics are generally available to the public for aviation, highways, transit systems, and waterways because the Federal Government operates the aviation and inland waterway systems and provides financial assistance for highways and transit systems. Publicly available statistics on railroads and ports are limited because those entities are either privately owned or privately operated on leased public facilities.
BTS publishes the underlying data on the extent and characteristics of the nation’s transportation network in the National Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD). Until 2016 the NTAD was published once each year. BTS has established a system to update the NTAD continuously as new geos-spatial data files are made available. BTS has also added the National Transit Map to the NTAD in 2016, filling a long-standing data gap.
While extensive statistics exist on the extent, use, condition, and performance of the transportation system, some of the underlying data are collected for different reasons and are not comparable across parts of the system. In response to the lack of comparable data on ports, Congress directed BTS in the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 to establish a port performance freight statistics program to publish annually nationally consistent measures of port capacity and throughput.5 The FAST Act requires an annual report of the statistics and a working group to recommend measures and methods for obtaining the measures.
Most current and planned statistics on performance are from the perspective of those who build and operate the transportation system. This perspective is important but incomplete unless it is complemented by performance measures from the user’s perspective. For example, a system designed to spread delay evenly over all travelers may be better tolerated than a system that concentrates the same total delay on only a portion of the travelers, causing missed connections, deliveries, or appointments. Delay also matters more for some purposes than others. Delay is critical for responses to medical emergencies but may only be a minor irritant for leisurely sightseeing. Delay is generally a greater problem for perishable or high-valued goods than for bulk commodities. Statistics on travelers, shippers, and carriers who use the transportation system, on the purposes of travel, and on the goods being moved are required to understand whether problems with transportation system performance warrant public action.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Current Statistics on Passenger Travel
Table 8-2 summarizes existing statistics on passenger travel and gaps in those statistics. Existing statistics include total travel on sections of the transportation system and characteristics of the travelers and trips.
National statistics on total travel by portion of the transportation system are drawn from sources such as the border crossing data from Customs and Border Protection [USDHS CBP OFO 2015], the Federal Transit Administration’s National Transit Database [USDOT FTA NTD 2014], the BTS monthly passenger enplanement data [USDOT BTS 2012a], and the National Census of Ferry Operators [USDOT BTS NCFO 2014].
Statistics on the characteristics of travelers and trips come from programs that collect data at the individual traveler’s level (without identifying personal identifiable information) from which travel patterns and traveler characteristics for the population as a whole can be estimated. The most prominent program in this group is the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), sponsored mainly by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and with increased cosponsorship by states and metropolitan planning organizations [USDOE ORNL 2015].
The NHTS collects not only information on individual trips but also demographic, household vehicle ownership and neighborhood characteristics as well as other factors that influence a household member’s decision on when, how, and how far to travel. Although the NHTS collects all personal travel taken by all modes of transportation, it mainly captures local travel. The high cost of conducting this type of nationwide survey has limited the frequency of this survey to once every 5 to 8 years. Despite these limitations, NHTS remains the only national source that provides the comprehensive data needed to understand travel decisions and predict travel demand. Improvements to the 2016 edition of the NHTS are highlighted in Box 8-A.
The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) is another commonly used source of passenger travel information. The ACS collects commute-to-work data from an annual survey of the population. This survey provides small-area information every year, unlike the once-per-decade information formerly provided by the decennial census. The ACS also provides statistics for small units of geography averaged over several years, while the 374 metropolitan statistical areas, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget, are the lowest levels of geography covered by the NHTS [USDOC ACS 2011].
Strengths and Weaknesses of Current Statistics on Freight Movement
In addition to travelers, the transportation system serves the movement of freight. Table 8-3 summarizes existing statistics on freight movement and gaps in those statistics.
Due to the magnitude and complexity of freight transportation, no single data collection provides a comprehensive picture of annual freight movement from origin to destination, by all modes of transportation and by all commodity types. Among the various data sources, the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS), cosponsored by BTS and the Census Bureau, provides the most comprehensive coverage of U.S. freight flows. The CFS is the only source of nationwide data on domestic freight shipments by manufacturing, mining, wholesale, and selected retail industries covering all modes of transportation. It also provides comprehensive data on domestic hazardous material shipments. The CFS is conducted every 5 years as part of the Economic Census.
The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) builds on the CFS to provide national estimates of total freight movement by mode of transportation and type of commodity for over 130 regions based on states and metropolitan areas. The CFS covers roughly two-thirds of the tonnage and value measured in the FAF. The remaining freight is measured from multiple, publicly available data sources, such as the data on freight flows across U.S. land borders and data on the international movement of air cargo collected by BTS [USDOT BTS 2012b].
The FAF is based on observed data wherever possible, but must turn to models and assumptions to fill the remaining data gaps in the 5-year benchmarks and to make annual updates and forecasts. Among the data gaps in the 5-year benchmarks requiring significant modeling are shipments from farms, the movement of municipal solid waste, and the domestic transportation of foreign trade. While movements of goods between U.S. international gateways and foreign countries are tracked continuously, movements of international trade between gateways and domestic origins for exports and domestic destinations for imports have not been measured since the 1970s. The FAF includes benchmarks every 5 years based on the CFS, annual updates, and 30-year forecasts.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Current Statistics on Transportation’s Role in the Economy
Table 8-4 summarizes existing statistics on transportation’s role in the economy and gaps in those statistics. Statistics cover how much the Nation spends on transportation, how transportation costs have changed, how many people are employed in transportation companies and occupations, and how transportation contributes to economic output.
Transportation’s role in the economy is derived from statistics on the costs paid by households and businesses for transportation services, employment in transportation industries and occupations, and the value of transportation infrastructure and equipment. These statistics come from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, each of which treats transportation as a significant sector of the economy.
For-hire transportation is one of the many sectors covered in the Economic Census, conducted every 5 years. This sector is also covered in the Census Bureau’s Services Annual Survey, which collects operating revenue and other industry-specific data. BEA uses these data to estimate the flow of expenditures among sectors of the economy in order to understand how changes in the costs in a specific sector affect the rest of the economy. BTS expands on this accounting in its Transportation Satellite Account to include the sizable contribution to the economy made by in-house transportation services within nontransportation industries, such as truck fleets operated by large retail companies.
Transportation is not often highlighted in monthly national economic statistics. To provide a perspective on transportation’s role in a dynamic economy, BTS developed the monthly Transportation Services Index (TSI) [USDOT BTS 2012c]. This index is based on activity in all modes of for-hire passenger and freight transportation services, and affords a better understanding of the relationship between transportation and the current and future course of the economy.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Current Statistics on the Unintended Consequences of Transportation
In addition to the intended economic activity that transportation creates, transportation has unintended impacts on safety, energy consumption, the environment, and communities. Table 8-5 summarizes existing statistics and gaps in those statistics.
Of the unintended consequences, safety is the main focus for several of the largest statistical programs in the USDOT. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) account for 40 percent of the expenditures on major statistical programs in the Department [EOP OMB 2015]. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) and FHWA also have large-scale safety programs in place. Altogether, the Department’s annual expenditures on safety data exceed $50 million.
In comparison to highway fatalities, the relatively low fatality rates of commercial aviation, railroads, transit, and pipelines do not reduce the need for data to understand risks and maintain or improve the safety of these modes. The focus of data programs for these modes goes beyond determining causes of infrequent crashes to understanding circumstances surrounding near misses or other mishaps that could have resulted in a serious incident. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides a close calls reporting system for the Federal Aviation Administration that allows airline employees to make confidential reports that can be used to identify and mitigate safety problems. Nearly 5,000 reports are filed each month [NASA 2012]. NASA provides a similar reporting system for Amtrak. BTS has initiated the first urban close calls reporting system with a major transit system. The BTS program for confidential reporting of close calls, conducted under the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act,6 is also being expanded to off-shore oil extraction and connecting pipeline operations.
The areas of energy consumption and related environmental emissions are another focus of statistics on unintended consequences of transportation. The transportation sector accounts for more than two-thirds of the petroleum consumed in the country and produces between one-quarter and one-third of all of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the Nation’s energy consumption. The U.S. Department of Energy has a major data program that tracks energy consumption by transportation sector [USDOE EIA 2015], and transportation’s contributions to greenhouse gases and other emissions are tracked by the Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA OTAQ 2015]. While individual agencies compile information to meet specific needs, integrating these data and developing analytical techniques from many disciplines are the keys to effectively using these data sources to reduce transportation-related energy consumption and emissions. For example, the relationships between vehicle usage patterns and energy usage intensity are crucial to measuring and assessing the effectiveness of different energy and emission reduction opportunities and policies. Unfortunately, with the discontinuation of the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) in 2002, much of the data necessary to help make these assessments are now more than 10 years out of date [USDOC CB VIUS 2002]. A plan by FHWA, BTS, the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Department of Agriculture to revive the VIUS is currently under consideration.
Energy and safety concerns converge over the transportation of crude petroleum, ethanol, and other hazardous cargos by railroad. In response to the FAST Act,7 BTS is establishing a data program to monitor the use of tank cars for carrying these cargos, distinguishing tank cars that meet new standards from those that have not yet been brought up to standard. BTS is also collecting data on the construction of new tank cars and conversion of old tank cars to the new standards.
Statistical Information Gaps and Challenges
Considering the wide range of transportation data sources and information needs for public decisions, key gaps in statistical information are apparent:
- Long-distance, intercity travel remains poorly measured for surface modes of transportation.
- Understanding of the domestic movement of international trade is based on models and assumptions more than on data from observations.
- Basic performance measures for public use are much improved for some modes, such as trucking and commercial aviation, but are lacking for other modes, such as freight railroads.
- Cost data are available for most forms of passenger travel but are limited for freight movement.
- The value of transportation to the economy and society is poorly articulated.
- Availability of data on causation of safety problems varies by mode of transportation.
- Integration of data on motor vehicle crashes, the conditions surrounding each crash, and consequences of the crash remains elusive.
- Data on highway vehicle use by vehicle characteristics, type of user, energy consumed, and economic activity have not been collected since 2002.
Of the major data gaps, intercity passenger travel is particularly significant. While data are available on the number of trips on commercial aircraft and intercity rail, long-distance travel in personal vehicles, intercity bus, and general aviation are poorly understood. The demographic characteristics of the long- distance traveler by any mode have not been measured for almost 2 decades. The last survey of intercity travel was conducted in 1995. As a consequence, current discussions about trends in passenger travel and the consequences of travel are dominated by measures of local travel. This limitation may result in misguided conclusions because long-distance travel involves different trip purposes and conditions than local travel, and one long-distance trip can generate as many miles of travel as dozens or even hundreds of local trips. Without information on long-distance travel, decision makers do not know how local congestion affects long-distance travel, how long-distance travel contributes to local congestion and the local economy, and how the total of local and long-distance travel contributes to safety risks and environmental problems.
The tables in this chapter include many areas of improved statistical information in recent years. The FAF, built primarily on data collected by BTS, provides a comprehensive picture of goods movement throughout the United States. The Transportation Satellite Account, featured in chapter 6, provides a more complete accounting of transportation’s role in supporting other sectors of the national economy. The safety tables in National Transportation Statistics enumerate fatalities and injuries across all modes of transportation with double counting removed. Many other improvements are highlighted in previous editions of the Transportation Statistics Annual Report and in Box 8-A.
Challenges facing BTS and its partners are not limited to filling data gaps. The simple availability of data does not assure that robust statistics exist to help answer the questions of decision makers. Significant quality issues and inadequate methods for analyzing data to create useful information can undermine the effectiveness of key data programs. All data sources have quality issues, but some questions about statistical quality and information objectivity have greater potential consequences for misguiding decision makers and for undermining the credibility of evidence-based decisions with the public.
Credibility is also undermined by the perception that the information has been subjected to political influence. To assure objectivity, the products of principle federal statistical agencies are protected from political review by Statistical Policy Directive No. 1.
New Data Sources
“Big data” is frequently proposed as an answer to data gaps and inadequate statistics, especially with the executive order making government data available to the public8 and with increased awareness of applications in the private sector. Big data typically involves transactions or tracking systems that support government or private operations, ranging from bills of lading and sales transactions to real-time flight information from the air traffic control system and digital imagery from traffic monitoring cameras. Big data also refers to massive collections of tweets and other postings to the Internet. Big data sources typically involve unstructured data that are frequently updated and require very large data storage and processing technology.
Big data analytics were originally developed to make short-term forecasts from very large datasets. These methods are being adapted by private shippers to monitor and manage supply chains, and are now being explored by public agencies as early indicators of changing social and economic conditions. The potential for adapting these forecasting methods to explain underlying causes of change to support program evaluation and other evidence-based decision-making is not clear. Research has been initiated to determine the reliability and validity of statistics from these data sources and methods, to establish institutional arrangements for access to large proprietary databases, and to integrate these new data sources with traditional forms of data and analysis to provide effective information for decision makers.
Real-time data are frequently identified with big data as a source of effective information to guide decisions. Real-time data are essential for operating the transportation system, whether for keeping airplanes apart in the air traffic control system or synchronizing traffic signals in an urban street network or managing inventory in a warehouse or dispatching vehicles to deliver packages, pick up trash, or respond to emergencies. Public agencies and private entities that are directly responsible for these functions must maintain the instantaneous flow of data from sensors and transaction systems and act on moment-to- moment updates.
Beyond daily operations of the transportation system, most decisions involve more deliberative data and analysis. Investments in transportation infrastructure and equipment, safety and other regulations, and large-scale deployments of transportation services are based on an understanding of trends and their associated factors and future scenarios. Analysis of historical and aggregated real- time data are valuable for keeping traditional statistics up to date and for identifying important temporal and geographic variations in trends and current conditions, but are not a replacement for richer statistics that have the depth, breadth, and statistical rigor required to support transportation planning, programming, and policy.
Evidence-Based Decision Making
Congress directed BTS to ensure that the Bureau’s statistics support transportation decision making.9 This mandate is consistent with the current emphasis of the Congress and the Executive Branch on evidence-based decision making throughout the Federal Government. “Agencies are encouraged to allocate resources to programs and practices backed by strong evidence of effectiveness while trimming activities that evidence shows are not effective” [EOP OMB 2013a]. Congress established a Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking in 2016 to recommend approaches for integrating administrative, survey, and other data into analyses of programs and for incorporating “outcomes measurement, institutionalized randomized controlled trials, and rigorous impact analysis into program design.”10
Statistics to support evidence-based decisions go beyond simple tabulations of the types of performance measures characterized in table 8-6. While decisions to try a public action may be based on basic indicators of performance and measures of actionable conditions, the decision to continue or change a public action requires effective measures of outputs and outcomes. Outputs can be hard to define when the public action has multiple components and involves multiple levels of government. Outcomes are even harder to measure because they are not just changes in a basic indicator or actionable condition. Simple correlation is not enough. To be an outcome, some evidence of causality is required. Randomized controlled trials provide the strongest evidence, but are often not possible. A variety of methods are available to approximate controlled trials. Known as quasi-experimental designs, these methods range from simple before-and- after studies to sophisticated time-series analysis. A systematic approach to evaluating technologies, projects, and programs, such as the Service and Methods Demonstration Program for transit in the 1970s, could serve as a useful model for supporting evidence- based decision making throughout the field of transportation [USDOT UMTA 1979].
Looking Ahead
The transportation community must juggle the demands of evidence-based decision making and the development and interpretation of new data sources with the maintenance and improvement of traditional statistics on which decision makers and planers are dependent. BTS has direct control over a small portion of the data sources highlighted in this chapter, but it has a leadership role in many external data sources as the principal Federal statistical agency for transportation [EOP OMB 2014].
While other prominent data programs exist in DOT, BTS stands alone because
- BTS is the Department’s only source of statistics that cover all modes of transportation
- BTS is the Federal Government’s primary source of original information on commercial aviation
- BTS is the only part of DOT that is designated by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as a Principal Federal Statistical Agency and covered by all Statistical Policy Directives.
BTS recognizes that it must evolve its statistical products, data collection methods, and expertise to provide effective services to the transportation community in a rapidly changing world. As a 21st Century statistical agency, BTS must:
- Provides fresh, recent information in small bytes.
- Be flexible and nimble to address emerging issues.
- Focus on new technology for collection and delivery of information, especially through mobile devices and apps.
- Adhere to Statistical Policy Directives of the Office of Management and Budget to assure that statistics are objective, accurate, timely, and credible.
Toward these ends, BTS will expand its statistical products, publish to the web before printing reports, continue to streamline its data processing procedures, and implement new ways for the transportation community to find and use information on the BTS website. BTS will also continue to operate and improve the National Transportation Library, which is making transportation information, statistics, databases, and research findings from throughout USDOT transparent and accessible to the public under the government-wide Open Data Policy [EOP OMB 2013b]. All BTS products and the collections of the National Transportation Library are available on the internet at www.bts.gov.
As resources permit, BTS is undertaking research to explore alternative data sources and new methods of estimating statistics on the extent and use of the transportation system and on the consequences of transportation. BTS is looking at new approaches to measure phenomena such as passenger travel and freight movement for which traditional surveys are decreasingly effective. BTS is working with the other principal Federal statistical agencies to explore the use of administrative records, data from sensors, and advanced data mining analytics. The initial focus of this research is on methods to supplement or replace portions of the CFS in 2022. In addition to research, BTS is continuing to work with its partners in USDOT and the principal Federal statistical agencies to identify and resolve significant problems with comparability and quality of transportation statistics.
BTS recognizes the need to take a more active role with its partners to assist with performance measurement and evidence-based decision making. BTS provides (1) statistical expertise to advise the design of performance measures and program evaluations, (2) portals to data that can be used in performance measurement and program evaluations, and (3) public access to statistics created by performance measurement and program evaluations.
BTS has achieved significant progress in improving the state of transportation statistics over the last 25 years. The Bureau will continue to strive in the years ahead to create increasingly robust, credible products in each of the topic areas identified in legislative mandates and departmental goals. BTS will continue to enhance timeliness, improve quality of its products, and produce statistics that are useful, relevant, and used throughout the Nation.
References
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—2014. Statistical Policy Directive No. 1: Fundamental Responsibilities of Federal Statistical Agencies and Recognized Statistical Units, Federal Register/Vol. 79, No. 231 (December 2, 2014), p. 71610. Available at http:// www.gpo.gov/ as of November 2015.
—2013a. Next Steps in the Evidence and Innovation Agenda (July 26, 2013), Memorandum, M-13-17, p.1. Available at https:// www.whitehouse.gov/ as of November 2015.
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1 49 U.S.C. § 6302(b)(3)(B)(vi)
2 Public Law 89-670, Oct. 15, 1966
3 49 U.S.C. § 301
4 Section 6006 of Public Law 102-240, December 18, 1991
5 Section 6018 of Public Law 114-94, Dec. 4, 2015
6 Title V of Public Law 107-347, Dec. 17, 2002
7 Section 7308 of of Public Law 114-94, Dec. 4, 2015
8 Executive Office of the President of the United States (EOP), Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Open Data Policy-Managing Information as an Asset, Memo- randum, M-13-13, (May 9, 2013). Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/ as of November 2015.
9 49 U.S.C. § 6302(b)(3)(B)(i)
10 Public Law 114-140, Mar. 30, 2016