Freight Shipments Fell 0.7% in October from September

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, October 2008 - October 2013

Freight Transportation Services Index, October 2008 - October 2013

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry fell 0.7 percent in October from September, the first monthly decline after three months of increases, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today. The October 2013 index level (114.3) was 20.5 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the level of freight shipments in October measured by the Freight TSI (114.3) was 0.7 percent below the all-time high level of 115.1 in September 2013 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The September index was revised to 115.1 from 115.8 in last month’s release but still remains an all-time high. Monthly numbers for May through August were revised down slightly as were August and September 2012. October and November 2012 were revised up.

Beginning with the April release, BTS improved procedures and refined the TSI methodology. As a result there have been minor changes in monthly numbers released previously. Documentation will be made available in the near future.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The 0.7 percent decrease in October freight transportation was driven by decreases in air freight, rail carloads and particularly in trucking. The decrease follows three months of increases during the July through September quarter. During the quarter, Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.6 percent was heavily driven by an increase in private inventories – which may have accounted for much of the TSI growth. The Census Bureau’s report on manufacturers shows that increase in inventories of manufacturers continued in October.

Trend: The Freight TSI remained above its 2012 range for the 10th month in a row. Beginning with January, every month in 2013 has exceeded the high point of 2012, 112.2 reached in December. The September 2013 level was the highest all-time level for the index. After dipping to 94.8 in April 2009, the index rose 22.1 percent in the succeeding 53 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in October 2013 (114.3) were 20.5 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The October 2013 level is down 0.7 percent from the historic peak reached in September 2013 (115.1).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.0 percent in October compared to the end of 2012 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 6.8 percent in the five years from the recession level of October 2008 and are up 7.5 percent in the 10 years from October 2003 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: October 2013 freight shipments were up 5.3 percent from October 2012 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2013 index is scheduled for Jan. 8.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.3 percent in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2013 level of 117.7 was 3.0 percent above the October 2012 level (Table 7). The index is up 4.2 percent in five years and up 20.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.4 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2013 level of 115.3 was 4.6 percent above the October 2012 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 5.9 percent in five years and up 10.9 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.