Freight Shipments Fell 1.0% in December from November

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, December 2008- December 2013

Freight Transportation Services Index, December 2008- December 2013

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry fell 1.0 percent in December from November, declining after a one-month rise, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today. The December 2013 index level (116.5) was 23.0 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

BTS reported that the level of freight shipments in December measured by the Freight TSI (116.5) was the second highest all-time level and 1.0 percent below the all-time high level of 117.7 in November 2013. The November index number, released last month as 116.5 was revised up to 117.7 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

While the November index was revised up to 117.7 from 116.5 in last month’s release, previous month numbers were revised down. The months from January through October 2013 were all revised down in the range between 0.4 and 0.6.

Beginning with the April release, BTS improved procedures and refined the TSI methodology. As a result there have been minor changes in monthly numbers released previously. Documentation will be made available in the near future.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The decline in December from November resulted from slight declines across all modes.

Trend: The Freight TSI remained above its 2012 range for the 12th month in a row. Beginning with January, every month in 2013 exceeded the high point of 2012, 111.6 reached in December. The index fell in December 2013 from the all-time high reached in November 2013 but still ranked as the second highest level for the index. After dipping to 94.7 in April 2009, the index rose 23.0 percent in the succeeding 56 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in December 2013 (116.5) were 23.0 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The December 2013 level is down 1.0 percent from the historic peak reached in November 2013 (117.7).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 4.4 percent in December compared to the end of 2012, the fourth year in the last five in which the index was higher in December than in the previous year. The only decline was in 2012 (Table 3)

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 16.2 percent in the five years from the recession level of December 2008 and are up 7.8 percent in the 10 years from December 2003 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: December 2013 freight shipments were up 4.4 percent from December 2012 (Tables 4, 5).

Fourth-quarter changes: Freight shipments rose 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, the fifth consecutive quarter in which the index was higher at the end of the quarter (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the January 2014 index is scheduled for March 12.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers was virtually unchanged in December from its November level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI December 2013 level of 118.3 was 2.0 percent above the December 2012 level (Table 7). The index is up 7.2 percent in five years and up 18.0 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The Passenger TSI was 0.8 percent higher at the end of the fourth quarter than at the beginning (Table 11). The Passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.7 percent in December from its November level (Table 8). The combined TSI December 2013 level of 117.1 was 3.7 percent above the December 2012 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 13.4 percent in five years and up 10.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI was 1.2 percent higher at the end of the fourth quarter than at the beginning (Table 12). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each months data are added.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.