Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, July 2008- July 2013

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry rose 0.3 percent in July from June, rising after a one month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today. The July 2013 index level (114.3) was 20.5 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the level of freight shipments in July measured by the Freight TSI (114.3) was the second highest all-time level. The July index was 0.8 percent below the all-time high of 115.2 in December 2011 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The June index was revised to 114.0 from 113.8 in the previous release. The April index was revised to 112.9 from 112.8.

Beginning with the April release, BTS improved procedures and refined the TSI methodology. As a result there have been minor changes in monthly numbers released previously. Documentation will be made available in the near future.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The increase of 0.3 percent in July freight transportation was driven by increases in rail intermodal and inland water shipments, with small increases in trucking and rail carloads.  The slow increase in July after a decrease in June is likely influenced by the decrease in manufacturing output in July.

Trend: The Freight TSI remained above its 2012 range for the seventh month in a row.  Beginning with January, every month in 2013 has exceeded the high point of 2012, 112.3 reached in December. The July 2013 level is the highest TSI freight has been in 2013, and is the second highest all-time level exceeded only by December 2011. After dipping to 94.9 in April 2009, the index rose 20.5 percent in the succeeding 51 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in July 2013 (114.3) were 20.5 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The July 2013 level is down 0.8 percent from the historic peak reached in December 2011 (115.2).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.8 percent in July compared to the end of 2012 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 3.1 percent in the five years from the recession level of July 2008 and are up 10.0 percent in the 10 years from in the 10 years from July 2003 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: July 2013 freight shipments were up 2.4 percent from July 2012 (Tables 4, 5).

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in July from its June level (Table 6).  The Passenger TSI July 2013 level of 117.9 was 2.7 percent above the July 2012 level (Table 7). The index is up 1.2 percent in five years and up 21.9 percent in 10 years (Table 5).  The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.2 percent in July from its June level (Table 8). The combined TSI July 2013 level of 115.3 was 2.5 percent above the July 2012 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 2.5 percent in five years and up 13.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each months data are added.

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the August 2013 index is scheduled for October 2013.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since January 2013

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
January	112.4	0.1	116.8	0.6	113.7	0.3
February	113.2	0.7	116.4	-0.3	114.1	0.4
March	113.9	0.7	116.3	-0.1	114.6	0.5
April	112.9	-0.9	116.8	0.4	114.0	-0.6
May	114.1	1.1	117.4	0.6	115.1	1.0
June	114.0	-0.1	117.7	0.2	115.1	0.0
July	114.3	0.3	117.9	0.2	115.3	0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013

Percent change from previous month

	2010 % Change	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change
January	0.5	1.0	-3.6	0.1
February	1.6	-1.7	0.1	0.7
March	0.0	1.5	-0.5	0.7
April	0.7	-0.4	0.6	-0.9
May	0.6	-2.2	0.1	1.1
June	-0.3	2.1	0.4	-0.1
July	0.6	0.2	-0.1	0.3
August	-0.4	0.6	-0.6
September	0.9	0.8	0.2
October	0.5	0.0	-2.5
November	-0.4	0.2	2.2
December	1.9	4.0	1.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2010-2013

	2010	2011	2012	2013
January	102.3	109.6	111.1	112.4
February	103.9	107.7	111.1	113.2
March	104.0	109.3	110.6	113.9
April	104.7	108.9	111.2	112.9
May	105.4	106.5	111.3	114.1
June	105.1	108.7	111.8	114.0
July	105.8	109.0	111.6	114.3
August	105.3	109.7	110.9
September	106.3	110.5	111.1
October	106.8	110.5	108.4
November	106.4	110.8	110.8
December	108.5	115.2	112.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2004-2013

Percent change to July from December of the previous year

Year	Freight	Passenger	Combined
2004	2.9	4.2	3.3
2005	0.7	2.4	1.2
2006	0.0	1.7	0.4
2007	-1.6	2.3	-0.5
2008	0.0	-0.1	0.0
2009	-2.3	-0.2	-1.7
2010	3.9	1.7	3.3
2011	0.5	2.1	0.9
2012	-3.1	-1.2	-2.6
2013	1.8	1.6	1.8

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the July Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	July Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2004	111.2	7.0
2005	111.8	0.5
2006	112.1	0.3
2007	108.7	-3.0
2008	110.8	1.9
2009	98.2	-11.4
2010	105.8	7.7
2011	109.0	3.0
2012	111.6	2.4
2013	114.3	2.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2013 (July to July)

Since July . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI Percent change to July 2013	Passenger TSI Percent change to July 2013	Combined TSI Percent change to July 2013
2012	1	2.4	2.7	2.5
2011	2	4.9	2.0	4.1
2010	3	8.1	4.7	7.1
2009	4	16.4	6.9	13.5
2008	5	3.1	1.2	2.5
2007	6	5.1	1.2	3.9
2006	7	1.9	6.2	3.0
2005	8	2.2	7.8	3.6
2004	9	2.8	12.7	5.3
2003	10	10.0	21.9	13.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013

Percent change from previous month

	2010 % Change	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change
January	0.4	0.4	-1.0	0.6
February	-2.5	-1.4	1.4	-0.3
March	3.0	1.9	0.0	-0.1
April	-0.5	0.0	-0.3	0.4
May	0.5	1.1	-0.4	0.6
June	0.9	-0.6	-0.1	0.2
July	0.1	0.8	-0.9	0.2
August	0.0	-2.0	1.5
September	1.2	2.2	-0.5
October	1.5	-0.1	-1.6
November	-1.0	0.0	0.6
December	-1.2	0.5	1.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the July Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	July Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2004	104.6	8.1
2005	109.4	4.5
2006	111.0	1.5
2007	116.6	5.0
2008	116.5	0.0
2009	110.3	-5.3
2010	112.6	2.1
2011	115.6	2.7
2012	114.8	-0.6
2013	117.9	2.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2010-2013

Percent change from previous month

	2010 % Change	2011 % Change	2012 % Change	2013 % Change
January	0.5	0.9	-2.8	0.3
February	0.4	-1.6	0.5	0.4
March	0.9	1.6	-0.4	0.5
April	0.4	-0.3	0.3	-0.6
May	0.6	-1.3	0.0	1.0
June	0.1	1.3	0.3	0.0
July	0.5	0.4	-0.4	0.2
August	-0.3	-0.1	0.0
September	1.0	1.2	0.0
October	0.8	0.0	-2.2
November	-0.6	0.1	1.7
December	1.0	3.0	1.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the July Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	July Combined TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2004	109.5	7.4
2005	111.3	1.6
2006	112.0	0.6
2007	111.0	-0.9
2008	112.5	1.4
2009	101.6	-9.7
2010	107.7	6.0
2011	110.8	2.9
2012	112.5	1.5
2013	115.3	2.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Brief Explanation of the TSI
           
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.