January 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.5 percent in January from December, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The January 2016 index level (122.2) was 29.0 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Freight Transportation Services Index, January 2011 - January 2016

Freight Transportation Services Index, January 2011 - January 2016

The level of freight shipments in January measured by the Freight TSI (122.2) was 1.3 percent below the all-time high level of 123.8 in November 2014 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The December 2015 index was revised to 121.6 from 121.0 in last month’s release.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The January Freight TSI increase of 0.5 percent from December was due to substantial growth in rail intermodal and pipeline and a smaller increase in the largest mode, trucking. Air freight, water, and rail carloads all decreased. The TSI increase paralleled growth in the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index which rose 0.9 percent in December (reversing two months of declines), in personal income, up 0.5 percent, and in employment, which continued steady growth. The ISM Manufacturing Index was again below 50, indicating declining manufacturing activity and a continuing decrease in high inventories. The TSI growth took place despite severe winter weather.

Trend: The January Freight TSI increase was the second consecutive monthly increase, the first time the index increased for two months in a row since November 2014. The two increases still left the index 0.7 percent below its October 2015 level and below the level of all months from July 2015 to October 2015. The index remains high compared to earlier years with an increase of 29.0 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in January 2016 (122.2) were 29.0 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The January 2016 level was 1.3 percent below the historic peak reached in November 2014 (123.8).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.5 percent in January compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 10.7 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of January 2011 and are up 8.6 percent in the 10 years from January 2006 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: January 2016 freight shipments were down 0.5 percent from January 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the February 2016 index is scheduled for April 13.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in January from its December level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI January 2016 level of 124.6 was 4.3 percent above the January 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 10.1 percent in five years and up 13.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.4 percent in January from its December level (Table 8). The combined TSI January 2016 level of 123.0 was 0.9 percent above the January 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 10.5 percent in five years and up 9.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.