The level of for-hire freight shipments in October measured by the Freight TSI (138.6) was exceeded by three previous months and was 1.0% below the all-time high level of 140.0 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The September index was revised to 136.8 from 136.6 in last month’s release.  Monthly numbers for June through August were revised down slightly.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The October Freight TSI 1.3% rise was broad based with increases in trucking, water, pipeline and air freight, however both rail carloads and rail intermodal declined. The TSI increase took place against a background of mixed results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Index declined in October, reflecting decreases in all major industry groups. Personal income increased by less than 0.1%, while housing starts increased by 3.8%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index increased 0.5 points to 48.3, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector but not as much contraction as in September.

Trend: The Freight Index’s 1.3% increase in October was the largest one month Freight TSI increase since September 2018. Following a decrease of 2.3% in October, TSI was 1.0% below its record high of 140.0 in August. However, it remained above any level it had reached before the high of November 2018 and in all but one month prior to January 2019. The Freight TSI rose 15.8% from 120 in March 2016 to a level of 139.0 November 2018, but has been essentially stable (declining by 0.3 %) since then. The October 2019 index was 46.2% above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in October 2019 (138.6) were 46.2% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The October 2019 level was 1.0% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (140.0).

Year-to-date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.9% in October compared to the end of 2018 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 13.3% in the five years from October 2014 and are up 40.4% in the 10 years from October 2009 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: October 2019 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.5% from October 2018 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2019 index is scheduled for Jan. 9.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.5% in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2019 level of 133.9 was 2.9% above the October 2018 level (Table 7). The index is up 12.1% in five years and up 22.5% in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 1.0% in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2019 level of 136.5 was 1.3% above the October 2018 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 12.8% in five years and up 34.4% in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.