Second Quarter 2020 Air Fare Drops to New Low as Passenger Numbers Decline

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Date: Tuesday, October 26, 2020

U.S. domestic air fares declined in the second quarter of 2020 to $259, the lowest inflation-adjusted quarterly air fare in Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) records dating back to 1995. The previous low was $334 in the first quarter of 2020.

Adjusted for inflation (constant 2020 dollars) the 2Q 2020 air fare was:

Down 27.8% from 2Q 2019 ($358)
Down 22.6% from 1Q 2020 ($334)
Down 38.4% from 2Q 2015 ($420)

Air fares declined along with passenger demand. Airlines reported 11.5 million originating passengers in the second quarter of 2020, down from 87.2 million passengers a year earlier.

The percent change is based on unrounded numbers. COVID-19 effects on travel were significant in the April-June reporting period.

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares, Origin and Destination Survey

Itinerary Fares: Round-trips, but includes one-way tickets if no return is purchased.

Breakout of trip types: one-way, 53% ($221); round-trip, 47% ($311).

Fare calculations by BTS

*Based on a random sample of approximately 10% of tickets sold.

Total ticket value: The price charged by airlines at time of ticket purchase.

Included: Additional taxes and fees levied by an outside entity at time of ticket purchase.

Not included: Fees for optional services, such as baggage fees.

Figure 1. U.S. Average Domestic Fares, 2nd Quarter 1995-2020

	Unadjusted Fares (current dollars)	Inflation-Adjusted (2020$)	1
1995	297	501	2
1996	276	453	3
1997	289	464	4
1998	301	475	5
1999	329	509	6
2000	339	507	7
2001	329	476	8
2002	318	454	9
2003	315	440	10
2004	309	421	11
2005	307	405	12
2006	342	434	13
2007	325	402	14
2008	347	411	15
2009	302	362	16
2010	341	401	17
2011	370	421	18
2012	385	430	19
2013	378	417	20
2014	402	434	21
2015	389	420	22
2016	352	376	23
2017	356	374	24
2018	349	357	25
2019	357	358	26
2020	259	259	27
			28

Source:

Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Origin and Destination Survey

Inflation-Adjusted Air Fares

Second Quarter 2020 fare ($259):

Compared to All Second Quarters: Down 49.1% from the highest 2Q fare, $509 in 1999.

Compared to All Quarters: Down 50.0% from the highest fare for any quarter, $518 in 1Q 1999.

Start of BTS records: Down 48.8% from 1Q 1995 ($505).

Recent high: Down 39.3% from 1Q 2015 ($427).

Recent low: Down 22.6% from 1Q 2020 ($334).

All-time low: Down 22.6% from the previous low 1Q 2020 ($334).

All-time second-quarter low: Down 27.4% from the previous low 2Q 2018 ($357).

Other Revenue: In recent years, airlines have increasingly obtained additional revenue from passenger fees, as well as from other sources. U.S. passenger airlines collected 67.6% of total operating revenue of $30.5 billion from passenger fares during the first six months of 2020, down from 88.5% in 1990.

Unadjusted Air Fares

Second Quarter 2020 fare ($259):

Trend: Down 23.0% from 1Q 2020 ($336)

Compared to All Second Quarters: Down 35.6% from the highest 2Q fare, $402 in 2014

Compared to All Quarters: Down 35.6% from the highest fare for any quarter, $402 in 2Q 2014

Start of BTS records: Down 12.8% from 1Q 1995 ($297) (compared to 68.8% consumer price increase)

Recent low: Down 22.9% from 3Q 2017 ($336)

Recent high: Down 33.6% from 1Q 2015 ($390)

All-time low: Down 3.9% from 3Q 1996 ($269)

All-time second-quarter low: Down 6.1% from 2Q 1996 ($276).

Fares by Airport

Fares by airport group:

Highest: 39 airports with 100,000-499,999 originating passengers ($259)

Lowest: 44 airports with 16,000-49,999 originating passengers ($249)

Additional data: see Top 100 Airports or All Airports. Third Quarter 2020 average fare data will be released Jan. 19.

Standard error: Results for average fares are based on the BTS Origin & Destination Survey, a 10% sample of airline tickets used during the quarter. Averages for airports with smaller samples may be less reliable.

Note: Results for average fares are based on the BTS Origin & Destination Survey, a 10% sample of airline tickets used during the quarter. For Q2 2020 results based on all itinerary fares, the standard error is 0.39 and the median fare is $207.64. The 90% confidence interval ranges from $258.24 to $259.51. For results based on round-trip fares, the standard error is 0.61 and the median fare is $256.87. The 90% confidence interval ranges from $309.69 to $311.71. For results based on one-way fares, the standard error is 0.45 and the median fare is $182.06. The 90% confidence interval ranges from $219.55 to $221.01.