BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for February. The passenger index for February is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to January 2021. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for February is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The January passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal variation from month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased 3.6% in February from January due to seasonally-adjusted decreases in truck tonnage, rail intermodal and rail carload, and waterborne despite growth in pipeline and air freight. The decline was driven by the severe weather events in February that impacted surface modes. The February decrease took place against the background of decline in most other indicators.

The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index shrank 2.2% in February reflecting declines of 4.1% in manufacturing and 15.3% in mining, while utilities increased 10.1%. Housing starts declined by 10.3%. Personal Income was down by 7.1% reflecting a sharp decline in the number of checks sent to households as part of the December 2020 COVID relief bill. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 2.1 points to 60.8, indicating growing strength in manufacturing.

Although the February Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the January index is now being released. The index increased 7.6% from December to January following a decrease of 0.9% in December. Air passenger, transit, and rail passenger all grew. The Passenger TSI remains above the levels of April 2020 through December 2020 though it has not returned to its level in March 2020, the first month of pandemic impact. It remained below any level the Passenger TSI had been before the pandemic for the 11th consecutive month. 

Trend: The February decline was the largest monthly decrease since April 2020, and was the second largest decrease since March 2009. The freight TSI is now below its level of October 2020. The index is 6.5% below its record level of 141.5 in August 2019 and has decreased in seven of the last 18 months since that peak. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in February 2021 (132.2) were 39.3% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The February 2021 level was 6.6% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (141.5) (Table 1A).

Year-to-date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 1.8% in February compared to the end of 2020 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 8.6% in the five years from February 2016 and are up 20.6% in the 10 years from February 2011 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: February 2021 for-hire freight shipments were down 2.7% from February 2020 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2021 index is scheduled for May 12.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since August 2020

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2021

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2018-2021

Percent change from previous month

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2018-2021

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2012-2021

Percent change to February from December of the previous year

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent Change in the February Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2021 (February to February)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.