The September index was revised to 135.0 from the 135.8 reported in last month’s release.  Monthly numbers for March through June were also revised down slightly.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for October. The passenger index for October is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to September 2021. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for October is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The September passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines, and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI increased 0.5% in October from September due to seasonally-adjusted increases in rail carloads, trucking, air freight, and water and decreases in pipeline and rail intermodal.

The October increase came in the context of mixed results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew 1.2% in October, reflecting increases of 1.2% in manufacturing, 4.1% in mining, and 1.2% in utilities. Housing starts were down 0.7%. Personal income increased by 0.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.3 points to 60.8, indicating continued but slowing growth in manufacturing.

Although the October Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the September index is now being released. The index increased 1.9% from August to September following a decrease of 1.6% in July. Seasonally adjusted, air passenger and rail passenger grew while transit declined slightly. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for four months in a row but has not returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. The Passenger TSI remains below its pre-pandemic level for the 19th consecutive month. 

Trend: The October freight index increase was the second increase following four consecutive months of decline. This was the fourth increase in eight months for a net increase of 1.7% over the eight months since February 2021. The October Freight TSI is at the same level as March 2021 and is 8.4% above the pandemic low in April 2020. The index is 4.4% below its record level of 142.0 in August 2019 and has decreased in 14 of the 26 months since that peak.

For additional historical data, please visit TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in October 2021 (135.7) were 42.8% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The October 2021 level was 4.4% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.0) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.6% in October compared to the end of 2020 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 10.1% in the five years from October 2016 and are up 21.5% in the 10 years from October 2011 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: October 2021 for-hire freight shipments were up 1.9% from October 2020 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2021 index is scheduled for January 13, 2022.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger, and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since April 2021
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2021

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2018-2021
Percent change from previous month

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2018-2021

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2012-2021
Percent change to October from December of the previous year

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent Change in the October Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2021 (October to October)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Brief Explanation of the TSI             

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:
            For-hire trucking,
            Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
            Inland waterways transportation,
            Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
            Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:
              Local transit,
              Intercity passenger rail, and
              Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).

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