The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.5 percent in November from October, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The November 2016 index level (123.2) was 30.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of for-hire freight shipments in November measured by the Freight TSI (123.2) was 1.2 percent below the all-time high level of 124.7 in July 2016 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The October index was revised to 122.6 from 122.0 in last month’s release and the September index from 120.8 to 121.1.  Monthly numbers for July and August were revised up slightly.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The November increase was broad in terms of mode. All freight modes grew from October except for pipeline (data on individual modes are seasonally adjusted  by BTS). The November rise took place in the context of mixed signals in other economic indicators that often impact transportation – employment increased by 178,000 jobs, retail sales rose by 0.1 percent, and personal income grew by less than 0.1 percent, while the Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index declined by 0.4 percent, and housing starts declined by 4.7 percent from October.

Trend: The 0.5 percent Freight TSI rise in November combined with the October increase of 1.2 percent brought the index to 1.7 percent above its September level, the low-point since March. The November level was still 1.2 percent below its record high of 124.7 in July 2016. In the last 12 months the index rose in eight months and declined in four months, for a total increase of 2.0 percent. The November level was the second highest level the Freight TSI reached since December 2014. The index has risen 30.1 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in November 2016 (123.2) were 30.1 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The November 2016 level was 1.2 percent below the historic peak reached in July 2016 (124.7) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.5 percent in November compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 10.1 percent in the five years from November 2011 and are up 13.7 percent in the 10 years from November 2006 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: November 2016 for-hire freight shipments were up 2.0 percent from November 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI uses seasonally adjusted data on for-hire freight and passenger transportation services to create three indexes measuring monthly changes in transportation services output from the base year of 2000. The three indexes are for-hire freight shipments, passenger travel, and a combined measure that merges freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the December 2016 index is scheduled for Feb 8.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.6 percent in November from its October level (Table 6).  The Passenger TSI November 2016 level of 123.1 was 0.3 percent below the November 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 6.8 percent in five years and up 8.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).  The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.5 percent in November from its October level (Table 8). The combined TSI November 2016 level of 123.3 was 1.3 percent above the November 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 9.2 percent in five years and up 12.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.  

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger  and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED. 

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Brief Explanation of the TSI           

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:

• For-hire trucking,
• Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
• Inland waterways transportation,
• Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
• Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

• Local transit,
• Intercity passenger rail, and
• Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. 

The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).